Global Solar Energy Set for 57% Growth by 2030 Despite Policy Shifts

Despite recent policy shifts in major economies, the global solar energy industry is poised for sustained high growth. The latest predictions from the research department indicate that by 2030, the global solar energy installed capacity will reach 914 gigawatts, a 57% increase from 2024 levels. This optimistic outlook comes amidst policy adjustments in key markets, such as China, which has canceled the construction of new large-scale commercial and industrial solar energy projects, and the United States, where the federal government is reviewing implementation rules that could exert downward pressure on solar installations starting from 2028.

The rapid expansion of solar power is described as occurring at an unprecedented pace in the history of electricity. Since its inception, solar energy has accumulated 2,129 terawatt-hours of electricity, contributing 8% of global power supply over the 12 months ending July 2025. While recent policy changes in China and the United States may cause short-term fluctuations, solar energy is expected to remain a critical component of the global energy landscape in the long term.

The industry faces several challenges, including negative electricity pricing in Australia and California, which highlights supply-demand imbalances when solar and wind energy are integrated into the grid at high levels. Additionally, power outages in Spain and Portugal in April due to frequency fluctuations underscore the technical difficulties of large-scale renewable energy integration.

Despite these hurdles, the structural factors supporting solar energy's long-term growth remain robust. The first is the positive feedback loop of cost reduction: lower costs drive increased demand and supply, further reducing costs. Solar panel costs decrease by 20% with each doubling of cumulative production, a rate that surpasses that of modern investments like computers and communication devices. Secondly, solar energy benefits from zero marginal fuel costs, requiring only initial installation and maintenance expenses. Lastly, the modular nature of solar panels allows for the construction of distributed grids, offering greater flexibility compared to traditional large-scale power plants.

The supply of solar panels is not a constraint, with China alone capable of meeting twice the global demand for 2024. The primary bottlenecks for industry growth are likely to be policy volatility and grid absorption capacity, rather than equipment supply limitations. This supply-demand dynamic gives the solar energy sector resilience against policy changes, ensuring that technological progress and cost advantages will continue to drive expansion, even if some countries reduce subsidies.