Global Nuclear Energy's Reliance on Russian Uranium: Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Geopolitical Risks

The global nuclear energy sector remains perilously dependent on Russian uranium enrichment and fuel supply chains, a vulnerability exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and structural bottlenecks in alternative capacity development. As of 2025, Russia controls 40–44% of global uranium enrichment capacity, a position solidified by decades of investment in its state-owned Rosatom complex, which spans uranium mining, conversion, enrichment, and fuel fabrication, according to a Discovery Alert report. This dominance extends to 40% of the world's enriched uranium supply, with the European Union (EU) and the United States (U.S.) accounting for significant shares of this dependency, as noted in an OilPrice analysis.

Russia's Strategic Grip on Enrichment and Fuel Supply

Russia's control over enrichment—a critical step in preparing uranium for reactor use—has created systemic vulnerabilities. The EU, for instance, sources 38% of its enriched uranium and 23% of its raw uranium from Russia, while the U.S. imported 24.04% of its enriched uranium in 2022, according to a Columbia report. Five EU countries—Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, and Slovakia—operate Russian-designed reactors and face prolonged transitions to alternative suppliers, with technical compatibility issues and regulatory hurdles delaying progress, as highlighted by a Global Electricity report.

This reliance is not merely economic but geopolitical. A GNA report notes that Russia's vertically integrated nuclear infrastructure allows it to leverage supply contracts as a tool of influence, particularly in energy-starved regions like Europe. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine further underscored this risk, prompting the EU to accelerate its REPowerEU plan, which aims to end Russian fossil fuel dependence by 2027 and has indirectly targeted uranium diversification, according to a Real Instituto Elcano analysis.

Geopolitical Risks and Supply Chain Bottlenecks

Expanding enrichment capacity outside Russia is hampered by high costs, long lead times, and technical complexity. New centrifuge-based enrichment facilities require $2–3 billion in investment and 5–10 years to build, with specialized expertise concentrated in a handful of countries, as reported by World Nuclear News. The U.S. has allocated $3.4 billion to bolster domestic enrichment, but even with these efforts, full replacement of Russian supplies is unlikely before 2030, according to an E&E News report.

Midstream supply chain risks—particularly in uranium conversion and enrichment—are equally acute. Russia dominates 46% of global enrichment infrastructure, and its state-owned TVEL subsidiary holds long-term contracts with utilities worldwide, warns a Watt-Logic analysis. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan, the world's largest uranium producer (43% of global output), maintains close ties to Moscow, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions during geopolitical crises, as discussed in a ResearchGate paper.

Investment Implications and Market Dynamics

For investors, the uranium sector presents a paradox: tight supply fundamentals clash with geopolitical uncertainty. A structural deficit exists, with current mine production meeting only 80–90% of reactor demand, driving up prices and incentivizing new projects, according to a ForoNuclear analysis. However, production from politically stable jurisdictions like Canada and Australia faces bottlenecks in midstream processing, as Western utilities scramble to replace Russian-enriched fuel, noted in a Discovery Alert piece.

The market is also bifurcating. Uranium from “friendly” nations commands a premium, while Russian-origin material faces regulatory headwinds. For example, the U.S. has banned Russian uranium imports after 2028, with limited exceptions, according to Bellona. This shift is accelerating consolidation in the sector, with companies like Urenco and Orano expanding capacity in North America and Europe, albeit with timelines stretching to 2028–2030; see an Orano press release for details.

Conclusion: A Call for Resilience and Diversification

The global nuclear energy sector stands at a crossroads. While Russia's dominance in enrichment and fuel supply remains unchallenged in the short term, the Ukraine war and Western sanctions have exposed vulnerabilities that cannot be ignored. Investors must weigh the immediate risks of supply disruptions against long-term opportunities in domestic enrichment projects, uranium stockpiling, and alternative fuel technologies.

Policymakers and utilities face a daunting task: balancing energy security with the realities of a supply chain that cannot be overhauled overnight. As one CSIS analysis put it, “The race to reduce Russian influence in nuclear energy is not just about reactors—it's about reengineering an entire industrial complex,” as argued in a CSIS analysis. For now, the world remains tethered to a system where geopolitical leverage and nuclear power are inextricably linked.