Global Markets Surge 10% Despite Trump Tariff Threats

Global markets have shown resilience in the face of Donald Trump's tariff threats, with investors remaining unfazed by his rhetoric. The MSCI All Country World Index, which tracks over 2,500 stocks worldwide, has jumped nearly 10% since January and hit an all-time high on July 4. This surge is not driven by the United States, where Trump's economic messaging has caused uncertainty, but by other regions showing strong performance.

Europe has been a standout performer, with Greece, Poland, and the Czech Republic leading the way. Greece's equity market has surged nearly 60% year-to-date, driven by banking gains, economic recovery, and a strong tourism season. Investors have also been encouraged by the Greek government's early repayment of bailout debt and fiscal surpluses. Poland and the Czech Republic have also seen significant gains, with year-to-date increases of 56% and 52%, respectively. Other top-performing European markets include Spain, Italy, and Germany.

The strong performance in Europe can be attributed to several factors. The "sell America" trend at the start of the year, coupled with improving economic numbers in Europe, has pulled cash into European markets. Additionally, defense and bank stocks in Europe have performed well and face less risk from US tariffs, making them attractive to investors.

In Asia, the performance has been mixed. South Korea has been a bright spot, with its market jumping over 30% year-to-date despite a 25% tariff on Korean exports imposed by Trump. The market had already priced in the tariffs, and there is optimism that they could be reduced if negotiations continue. Korean exporters are also expected to survive the trade hits as US buyers are likely to absorb the extra costs. China's stock market has climbed more than 17% this year, driven by expectations of a strengthening yuan, improving earnings, and supportive policies. However, there is no major stimulus planned, which could put pressure on China's overall growth.

On the other hand, Thailand and Turkey have struggled. Thailand's market has dropped more than 13% in 2025, weighed down by political issues, weak tourism, and US auto tariffs. Turkey's market has also faced challenges due to inflation, capital flight, and political repression, with the Turkish lira collapsing by almost 13% against the US dollar.

Despite Trump's tariff threats, global markets have shown that they are not buying into his rhetoric this time. Investors have remained confident in the face of uncertainty, with European and Asian markets leading the way. The resilience of global markets in the face of Trump's tariff threats is a testament to the strength of the global economy and the confidence of investors in the long-term prospects of the markets.