U.S. Global Investors’ Q3 Fiscal 2025 Webcast: Navigating ETF Growth and Gold’s Rally
16min read The upcoming webcast for U.S. Global Investors’ (NASDAQ: GROW) third quarter of fiscal 2025 promises to shed light on a critical period for the asset management firm. As markets grapple with geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and shifting investor preferences, the company’s strategic moves—particularly its focus on niche ETFs and gold—could position it for resilience. Here’s what investors need to know ahead of the May 9 webcast.
Fiscal Q3 2025: A Crossroads for Growth and Recovery
The quarter ended March 31, 2025, follows a challenging second quarter in which the company reported a net loss of $86,000 and a decline in Assets Under Management (AUM) to $1.5 billion from $2.1 billion a year earlier. While these figures underscore the headwinds of a volatile market, U.S. Global Investors has positioned itself to capitalize on long-term trends through its thematic ETF strategy and gold-focused investments.
The webcast—scheduled for May 9 at 7:30 a.m. CT—will likely address whether AUM stabilized or rebounded in Q3. A key metric to watch: . A recovery here would signal investor confidence in the firm’s niche strategies, particularly its newly launched ETFs.
The ETF Gambit: WAR and goau Take Center Stage
The company’s most notable move this fiscal year was the December 30, 2024, launch of the U.S. Global Technology & Aerospace & Defense ETF (WAR). This actively managed fund targets sectors like semiconductors, cybersecurity, and electronic warfare—a response to soaring global defense spending. According to SIPRI, military expenditure hit a record $2.4 trillion in 2023, with the EU alone allocating €326 billion ($342 billion) to defense in 2024. WAR’s Smart Beta 2.0 strategy, combining factor- and rules-based investing, aims to capitalize on this trend.
Meanwhile, the GOAU ETF (gold and precious metals) benefits from a historic surge in gold demand. The World Gold Council reports that global gold demand reached 4,974 metric tons in 2024, with central banks purchasing over 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year. Gold prices hit 40 all-time highs in 2024, closing January 2025 at record levels across major currencies. This momentum positions GOAU as a key growth driver, especially amid concerns over inflation and trade conflicts.
Financial Resilience Amid Challenges
Despite the Q2 AUM decline, U.S. Global Investors maintains a robust liquidity position: $38 million in net working capital and $26 million in cash as of December 31, 2024. Shareholder returns remain a priority, with a 10% yield (double the 10-year Treasury) driven by dividends and share repurchases. In 2024, the company repurchased 19% more shares than the prior year, signaling confidence in its stock’s value. Investors will also monitor whether the $0.0075 monthly dividend—yielding 3.91% at recent prices—is sustained.
Risks and Opportunities Ahead
While the ETF strategy and gold rally offer tailwinds, risks remain. WAR’s concentration in aerospace and defense exposes it to geopolitical volatility and budget cuts. Similarly, GOAU’s performance hinges on gold prices, which are sensitive to interest rate changes and macroeconomic shifts. The company’s shareholder yield, while generous, could strain cash reserves if AUM continues to decline.
Conclusion: A Balancing Act Between Innovation and Caution
U.S. Global Investors’ Q3 results will test its ability to navigate a dual mandate: stabilizing core AUM while leveraging thematic ETFs for growth. The webcast’s emphasis on WAR’s early performance, GOAU’s role in a volatile market, and AUM trends will be critical. With $26 million in cash and a 10% shareholder yield, the firm is financially equipped to weather near-term turbulence. However, sustained success hinges on its ability to attract investors to its niche strategies in a crowded ETF landscape.
Investors should also consider broader trends: the $65 billion AI defense market growth (Precedence Research, 2025–2034) and gold’s safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical uncertainty. If U.S. Global Investors can demonstrate traction in these areas, its stock could outperform—particularly if AUM rebounds. The May 9 webcast is a pivotal moment to assess whether the company is turning the corner or facing persistent headwinds.
In short, GROW is a high-risk, high-reward play for investors willing to bet on thematic ETFs and gold’s enduring appeal. The Q3 results will clarify whether this strategy is paying off—or if adjustments are needed to compete in a challenging market.
