Global Fund Managers Bet on Trump Put to Keep Stock Rally Rolling

Global asset managers such as Invesco, Fidelity, and JPMorgan are betting on a "Trump put" to sustain the stock rally despite trade tensions and geopolitical risks. They believe that President Trump will step back from disrupting the economic order, justifying risk exposure and valuations. The managers are overweight US stocks, but see better prospects in non-US markets such as Europe and emerging markets. They are also boosting holdings of local currency emerging-market bonds and technology shares in Asia.

Global asset managers such as Invesco, Fidelity, and JPMorgan are betting on a "Trump put" to sustain the stock rally despite ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. They believe that President Trump will step back from disrupting the economic order, justifying risk exposure and valuations. The managers are overweight US stocks but see better prospects in non-US markets such as Europe and emerging markets. They are also boosting holdings of local currency emerging-market bonds and technology shares in Asia.

Invesco, for instance, has increased its US equity allocation ahead of the second-quarter corporate earnings, anticipating further support for stocks. The asset manager is also overweight non-US markets, particularly Europe and emerging markets. Chang Hwan Sung, a multi-asset portfolio manager at Invesco, expects medium-term opportunities in Korea due to optimism over the government's corporate-governance reforms. Invesco is adding to holdings of local currency emerging-market bonds, seeing these as deriving the most gain from expected US interest-rate cuts [1].

Fidelity favors shares in Taiwan due to the island’s high concentration of technology firms and likes Korean stocks for their inexpensive valuations. Ian Samson, a multi-asset fund manager at Fidelity, believes Taiwan is one of the best value ways to play the tech cycle upswing. JPMorgan Asset, on the other hand, sees medium-sized US tech stocks still having room to gain due to the market’s optimism over artificial intelligence. Kerry Craig, an investment strategist at JPMorgan, expects AI demand to continue supporting mid-cap tech stocks [1].

Goldman Sachs and HSBC have also increased their target for the S&P 500 Index and recommended higher US stock allocations in their multi-asset portfolios. Max Kettner, a multi-asset strategist at HSBC, expects corporate profit reports to provide a catalyst for US stocks, given low expectations. He believes that people are overestimating the negative impact of tariffs on margins and earnings and underestimating the positive tailwind from the weaker dollar [1].

Separately, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming is proposing a bold plan to fill the bitcoin strategic reserve without increasing the federal government deficit. Lummis plans to promote a bitcoin bill (BITCOIN Act) when the new Congress takes office next year. The bill requires the USA to purchase 1 million bitcoins, which accounts for nearly 5% of the largest circulating token. The pricing on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket indicates a 31% likelihood of Trump establishing a bitcoin reserve after taking office [2].

Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) shares rose around 2% intra-day today after Barclays upgraded the stock from Equalweight to Overweight, raising its price target to $150 from $115. The retailer is positioned for accelerating momentum in the back half of 2025 and into 2026, following the sale of Family Dollar. Comparable store sales are expected to maintain at least mid-single-digit growth, with potential upside into the high-single-digit range [3].

References:
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-21/fund-giants-put-faith-in-trump-put-to-keep-stock-rally-rolling
[2] https://www.moomoo.com/news/post/35034253/record-tr4cking-news-default
[3] https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/market-news/fmp-barclays-upgrades-dollar-tree-to-overweight-shares-rise-2