Global Blue's Record-Breaking Year and Shift4 Deal Offer a Rare Buying Opportunity

The market is buzzing with excitement over Global Blue Group Holding AG, a leader in tax-free shopping and travel payments, after its FY24/25 financial results and its $2.5 billion acquisition by Shift4 sent shockwaves through the travel tech sector. Investors who act now could capitalize on a 15% premium and a strategic merger that's primed to unlock massive value. Here's why this is a must-buy setup.

The Financials Are a Home Run
Global Blue just delivered a stunning performance, defying economic headwinds with 20% revenue growth to €507.9 million and a 36% surge in Adjusted EBITDA to €202.4 million. Margins expanded by 4.6 percentage points to 39.8%, thanks to operational efficiency and a 63% drop-through rate, proving the business isn't just growing—it's getting fatter and stronger.

Cash Flow Is King
The company's Free Cash Flow jumped 155% to €57.3 million, while net debt dropped to €487.7 million, slashing its leverage ratio to 2.4x—below its long-term target of <2.5x. This debt deleveraging isn't just a balance sheet fix—it's a green light for growth post-merger.

Why Shift4 Paid a 15% Premium—and Why It's a Smart Move
Shift4, a payments tech giant, isn't known for overpaying. So why bid $7.50 per share (a 15% premium to February's closing price) for Global Blue? Let's break it down:

1. Synergy Goldmine: Shift4 gains direct access to Global Blue's 80 million annual customers across 53 countries, plus its €33 billion in processed Sales-in-Store (SiS). This merger instantly boosts Shift4's global footprint in luxury travel and cross-border payments—a $100 billion market ripe for disruption.

2. Tech + Travel = Explosive Upside: Shift4's payment infrastructure pairs perfectly with Global Blue's tax-free shopping platform, creating a one-stop shop for retailers, hotels, and travelers. Imagine a traveler using Shift4's payment system to buy a luxury handbag, then instantly reclaiming VAT via Global Blue's tech—all on the same platform. That's seamless integration, and it's already driving 18% growth in Acquiring services.

3. Market Expansion: Global Blue's Asia Pacific segment grew 35% in FY24/25, signaling a rebound in post-pandemic travel. Shift4 can now tap into this growth, while Global Blue gains Scale 2.0 to compete with rivals like Amex or Visa.

The Deal's Timeline and Your Play
The tender offer has already met its 90% threshold, and the merger is slated to close in Q3 2025—no delays in sight. That means the stock is a certainty bet: it's priced to perfection at the $7.50 offer, but buy now to lock in gains as the merger nears.

Risks? Sure, but They're Manageable
- Regulatory Hurdles: The EU and U.S. could delay approvals, but Shift4's track record in M&A and Global Blue's clean books reduce this risk.
- Post-Merger Integration: Any merger has execution risks, but Shift4's focus on operational synergy and Global Blue's strong cash flow provide a safety net.

Final Call: Buy Now, Bank Later
This isn't just a merger—it's a strategic masterpiece. Global Blue's 20% revenue growth, debt deleveraging, and Shift4's premium all scream undervalued opportunity. Investors who act now can ride the synergy tailwinds and capture premium upside before the deal closes.

Action Items:
1. Buy shares now ahead of the merger's Q3 close.
2. Hold until post-merger, when the combined entity's true potential—and stock price—soar.

This is a once-in-a-decade chance to get in on a travel-tech titan at a discount to its merger value. Don't miss it.

Note: Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.