Global Blue Group Surges Ahead with 20% Revenue Growth in FY24/25: A Strategic Shift to Tech-Driven Retail?

Global Blue Group Holding AG has delivered a bullish outlook for its fiscal year ending March 31, 2025 (FY24/25), projecting revenue growth of 20% year-over-year to between €506 million and €510 million. This follows a strong recovery in FY23/24, which saw revenue jump to €422 million from €312 million in FY22/23. The figures signal a pivotal moment for the Swiss-based tax-free shopping and payments giant, as it capitalizes on post-pandemic travel demand and its technology-driven expansion.

Key Financial Highlights

The company’s preliminary results for FY24/25 reveal robust performance across multiple metrics:
- Sales in Store (SiS): Estimated at €32.8 billion to €33.0 billion, reflecting strong consumer spending in key markets.
- Adjusted EBITDA: Expected to rise 36% year-over-year to €201–204 million, with margins improving to 40% (up from 35% in FY23/24).
- Cash and Liquidity: A healthy €123–125 million in cash equivalents, supporting operational flexibility.

These figures position Global Blue as a beneficiary of the ongoing rebound in global travel. The company’s core Tax Free Shopping segment, which accounts for over 90% of its revenue, has seen surging demand as international tourists return to major shopping hubs in Europe, Asia, and the Americas.

Driving Growth: Tech and Global Scale

Global Blue’s success hinges on its technology platform, which connects 80 million consumers annually with retailers, hotels, and payment processors across 53 countries. Its digital solutions—such as real-time tax refunds and mobile payment integrations—have streamlined transactions for travelers, reducing friction in cross-border commerce.

The company’s focus on tech-driven innovation is evident in its €50–51 million CAPEX allocation for FY24/25, aimed at enhancing its platform capabilities. This investment aligns with its goal of becoming a “one-stop shop” for retailers and travelers, offering services like post-purchase analytics, loyalty programs, and dynamic pricing tools.

Caveats and Risks

While the guidance is promising, investors should note the following:
1. Preliminary Data: The figures are unaudited and subject to revision. Management explicitly warns that final results could differ materially due to unresolved accounting adjustments or audit findings.
2. Economic Uncertainties: A slowdown in travel demand, currency fluctuations, or geopolitical instability (e.g., trade policies, border restrictions) could dent revenue.
3. Competitive Pressures: Rivals like Premier Tax Free and Global Refund are also investing in digital tools, intensifying competition for market share.

Valuation and Outlook

Global Blue’s FY24/25 guidance implies a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% in revenue since FY22/23. At its current market cap of approximately €1.2 billion, the stock trades at a forward P/E of ~13x, which is reasonable given its growth trajectory. However, the stock’s volatility—driven by travel sector dynamics—remains a concern.

Conclusion

Global Blue Group’s FY24/25 guidance paints a compelling picture of recovery and reinvention. With a 20% revenue surge, margin expansion, and strategic tech investments, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the travel rebound. Yet, its reliance on global macroeconomic stability and competitive differentiation means investors must monitor geopolitical risks and sector trends closely.

The numbers tell a story of resilience: a €201–204 million Adjusted EBITDA and a 40% margin underscore operational efficiency, while the €33 billion SiS reflects its dominance in high-margin tax-free transactions. If Global Blue can execute its tech roadmap and navigate external headwinds, it could emerge as a leader in the evolving travel retail landscape. For now, the guidance offers a cautiously optimistic entry point for investors willing to bet on the rebound of cross-border commerce.

Final Note: Stay attuned to Global Blue’s Q3 updates and final FY24/25 results, as well as broader travel sector metrics like airline passenger numbers and tourism indices, to gauge the sustainability of its growth story.