Global Blue Group’s Strong Fiscal 2024/25 Results Signal Resilience in Travel Recovery

Global Blue Group Holding AG, a leading provider of tax-free shopping and travel-related payment solutions, has released preliminary results for its fiscal year ending March 31, 2025 (FY24/25), revealing robust growth amid a still-fragile global travel rebound. The data underscores the company’s ability to capitalize on post-pandemic consumer spending while navigating macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds.

The highlights are striking: revenue is projected to rise 20% year-over-year to €508 million (midpoint of the range), while Adjusted EBITDA is expected to jump 36% to €202.5 million. These figures reflect not only a recovery from pandemic lows but also a structural improvement in profitability. The Adjusted EBITDA margin has expanded to an estimated 40%, up from 35% in FY23/24 and a mere 25% in FY22/23, signaling operational efficiency gains.

Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion
The revenue surge aligns with the broader recovery in international travel. Sales in Store (SiS), a key metric tracking consumer spending at Global Blue’s partner retailers, are estimated at €32.9 billion, up sharply from €28 billion in the prior year. This suggests that travelers are not only returning in numbers but also spending more per transaction—a trend likely fueled by pent-up demand for luxury goods and cross-border shopping.

The margin expansion, however, is particularly notable. While revenue grew 20%, Adjusted EBITDA rose 36%, indicating that cost controls and pricing power are playing a role. Management’s focus on high-margin services like post-purchase solutions (e.g., loyalty programs and dynamic pricing tools) may be contributing to this shift. The company’s global scale—operating in 53 countries and serving nearly 80 million consumers annually—also provides economies of scale that smaller competitors cannot match.

Cautionary Notes and Risks
Global Blue cautions that these figures are preliminary and unaudited, with final adjustments pending. The company also lists risks that could dampen future results: geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations (notably the Swiss franc’s volatility, given Global Blue’s listing in Zurich), and regulatory changes to tax-free shopping regimes. For instance, some European Union countries have tightened eligibility criteria for tax-free shopping, which could reduce demand.

Moreover, while the travel sector’s recovery is underway, it remains uneven. Leisure travel has rebounded faster than business travel, and emerging markets—critical for Global Blue’s growth—are still grappling with infrastructure and inflationary pressures. The company’s reliance on discretionary spending also makes it vulnerable to broader economic slowdowns.

The Bigger Picture: A Post-Pandemic Travel Play with Structural Tailwinds
Global Blue’s results are emblematic of the travel ecosystem’s post-pandemic revival. The firm’s dual focus on tax-free shopping (its core business) and payments/post-purchase solutions positions it to benefit from two trends: the normalization of international tourism and the digitization of cross-border commerce.

The company’s €123 million in cash and €50 million in CAPEX for FY24/25 suggest it has the liquidity to invest in technology upgrades, such as AI-driven analytics for personalized shopping experiences, while maintaining financial flexibility. This is critical as competitors like Amazon and Alibaba expand into global travel commerce, threatening traditional retail models.

Conclusion: A Positive Outlook, But Challenges Linger
Global Blue’s preliminary results are undeniably strong, reflecting a combination of travel recovery and operational discipline. The 40% Adjusted EBITDA margin, up from 25% two years ago, is a testament to the company’s ability to optimize costs and monetize its scale. However, investors must weigh these positives against lingering risks.

Should geopolitical tensions (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan) disrupt travel flows, or if inflation curtails discretionary spending, Global Blue’s growth could stall. Yet, with its diversified geographic footprint—strong in Europe but expanding in Asia—and its role as a critical infrastructure provider for cross-border commerce, the company appears better positioned than many peers.

The stock’s performance over the past year (see visualization above) will be key to gauging investor sentiment. For now, the data points to a company leveraging its unique position in travel retail—a sector still in recovery mode but with long-term tailwinds. Investors should remain cautious but optimistic, keeping a close eye on final audited results and macroeconomic developments.