Global-E’s AI Edge Powers Surging Margins and 30%+ Growth

Date of Call: Feb 18, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: $337M for Q4, up 28% YOY; $962M for full year 2025, up 28% YOY
• EPS: GAAP EPS $0.39 for full year 2025; Q4 GAAP EPS $0.35 vs $1.5M profit last year
• Gross Margin: Non-GAAP gross margin 46.8% in Q4, up 80 bps YOY; 46.3% for full year 2025
• Operating Margin: Adjusted EBITDA margin 25.9% in Q4, up 420 bps YOY; 20.6% for full year 2025

Guidance:

• Q1 2026 GMV expected $1.705B-$1.745B, growth 38.8% at midpoint vs Q1 2025.
• Q1 2026 revenue expected $247M-$254M, growth 32% at midpoint vs Q1 2025.
• Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA expected $46.5M-$49.5M, margin 19.2% at midpoint.
• Full year 2026 GMV expected $8.45B-$8.80B, growth over 31% at midpoint.
• Full year 2026 revenue expected $1.21B-$1.27B, growth 29% at midpoint.
• Full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA expected $259M-$284M, growth almost 37% at midpoint, margin 21.9%.

Business Commentary:

Record GMV and Revenue Growth:

• Global-E Online Ltd. reported record GMV of $6.57 billion for 2025, up 35% year-on-year, and revenue of $962 million, up 28%.
• The growth was driven by strong holiday sales, successful execution of the multiyear strategic plan, and increased demand for services due to the growing complexity in the global tariff landscape.

Profitability and Margin Expansion:

• The company's adjusted EBITDA for the full year reached $198.5 million, representing a 41% growth rate and a 20.6% margin.
• Profitability was driven by strong top-line growth, operational leverage, and AI deployment across different functions, resulting in significant margin expansion.

AI and Efficiency Improvements:

• Global-E leveraged AI to achieve a 70 basis points reduction in R&D spend as a percentage of revenues and enhanced sales efforts with AI-driven prospecting tools.
• This was due to AI's role in speeding up R&D processes, automating daily tasks, and optimizing sales funnel efficiency.

New Merchants and Service Expansions:

• The company saw strong contributions from new merchant launches and expansions, including prominent brands in North America, Europe, and APAC regions.
• This was supported by new service offerings such as Shopify Managed Markets version 2.0 and the expansion of duty drawback services, enhancing Global-E's value proposition.

Tariff Landscape Impact:

• Changes in the global tariff landscape, particularly in the U.S. and upcoming EU changes, created short-term pressure but positively affected the company's pipeline and midterm growth.
• Global-E's platform, with its merchant of record trade compliance and optimization capabilities, became even more critical for merchants navigating these changes.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Amir Schlachet stated, '2025 was another record-breaking year for Global-E, in which we surpassed our guidance... 2025 was a very successful first year of our multiyear strategic plan.' Ofer Koren added, 'Our strong top line and bottom line performance drove record free cash flows and Q4 continued to perform well above the Rule of 40.' The guidance for 2026 shows acceleration in revenue growth and margin expansion, with the company 'well positioned to deliver results at or even above the top end of our guidance range.'

Q&A:

• Question from William Nance (Goldman Sachs): Could you delineate between FX-driven impacts versus same-store sales on the outperformance in Q4 and into Q1, and help us understand the assumptions for normalization in 2026?
  Response: Strong GMV driven by new merchants, large merchant performance, strong demand, and FX tailwinds (USD strengthened). For 2026, assumes same-store sales and FX normalize after Q1, but upside possible if they remain elevated.

• Question from William Nance (Goldman Sachs): What are the dependencies for the outlook over the course of the year in terms of customer implementations, and any color on large vs small merchants or geographies and timing?
  Response: Booking pipeline is strong, new merchant contribution was a record in 2025 and expected to continue. AI-led sales tool is driving more demos, and increased demand is expected from global tariff changes.

• Question from Brian Peterson (Raymond James): What could change about the value proposition in an AI world, and how should we think about enabling existing merchants?
  Response: AI will accelerate optimization using Global-E's unique data asset and infrastructure, enhancing trade compliance, payments, and fulfillment efficiency, but not replace core elements. AI is already showing positive tailwinds.

• Question from Brian Peterson (Raymond James): Can you share color on the take rates of the individual segments?
  Response: Service fee take rate expected stable in 2026; fulfillment take rate expected slightly lower due to mix shift towards multi-local growth.

• Question from James Faucette (Morgan Stanley): Can you talk about the benefit from Marks & Spencer coming back online versus value-added services, and what's driving the narrower spread between GMV and revenue growth in 2026 guidance?
  Response: Service fee take rate stabilized; Marks & Spencer had no material effect. The narrower GMV/revenue spread is driven by pipeline visibility with a mix similar to today and traction from new value-added services like borderfree.com and trade compliance.

• Question from James Faucette (Morgan Stanley): What has changed mechanically in Shopify Managed Markets version 2.0, and how much is embedded in the 2026 outlook?
  Response: Key change is integration with Shopify Payments for harmonization of financial/operational flows. Contribution expected to weigh slightly in first half of 2026 but grow above average rate in second half.

• Question from Samad Samana (Jefferies): What are early observations on agentic commerce transactions, including product type, AOV, and geography?
  Response: Agentic commerce transactions are still very small; too early to draw conclusions, but infrastructure is in place to support cross-border transactions as AI-based discovery traffic grows.

• Question from Samad Samana (Jefferies): Could you help us understand the acceleration in net dollar retention (NDR) to 122% in 2025, and what's embedded in the 2026 guidance?
  Response: NDR acceleration driven by healthy trading with leading merchants and improved gross dollar retention, not just lapping Ted Baker. 2026 expected to continue 2025 trend, impacted by same-store sales.

• Question from Chao Zhang (UBS): What are the investment priorities for 2026, and any new areas?
  Response: Priorities: 1) Trade compliance infrastructure to reduce merchant cost of trade; 2) Continuous AI investment across data optimization, sales, R&D, and efficiency; 3) Optimizing fulfillment networks for cost-effectiveness.

• Question from Chao Zhang (UBS): What was the trend for multi-local GMV in 2025 versus the initial expectation, and what's expected for 2026?
  Response: 2025 multi-local GMV was approximately 15% of total, close to initial expectations. 2026 expects continued growth but not outpacing the entire business by much.

• Question from Koji Ikeda (Bank of America): How should we think about GAAP EPS growth going forward, especially with AI efficiency gains?
  Response: Company expects to remain GAAP profitable. Non-GAAP net income/EPS is a key metric and expected to grow directionally along lines of adjusted EBITDA.

• Question from William Fitzsimmons (Piper Sandler): Can you break down the expected margin expansion in 2026 guidance between structural scale and AI-driven efficiencies? Also, examples of R&D velocity increases with AI?
  Response: A significant portion of EBITDA margin expansion is AI-driven, particularly in R&D enabling new services with minimal headcount growth, and in sales lead generation. Scale and AI are complementary, with data fueling AI value.

• Question from Patrick Walravens (Citizens JMP Securities): What are the moats that protect your business from AI disruption?
  Response: Four key moats: 1) Scale providing cost and pricing advantages; 2) Unique, extensive data asset for AI training; 3) Expertise in trade compliance and complex infrastructure across 40+ jurisdictions; 4) Integrated merchant of record model with compliance and risk management.

• Question from Scott Berg (Needham): What is the initial feedback from U.S.-based customers on the duty clawback solution, and how is it impacting 2026 guidance?
  Response: Initial feedback is great, with high adoption expected. It is embedded into 2026 guidance with some conservatism, but is expected to contribute to revenue.

Contradiction Point 1

Merchant Pipeline and New Business Outlook

Contradiction on the health and momentum of the merchant pipeline heading into the next year.

What are your key takeaways from the company's latest earnings report? - William Nance (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division)

2025Q4: The merchant pipeline is strong and growing faster than the same period in 2025. New merchant contribution in 2025 was a record. - [Nir Debbi](President)

What are the growth drivers, dependencies for the outlook, and the cadence of new merchant implementations this year? - William Nance (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division)

2025Q3: The company sees development across its sales funnel and is optimistic about 2026, with confidence reflected in its Q4 and full-year guidance. - [Nir Debbi](President)

Contradiction Point 2

FX Impact Outlook

Contradiction on the expected impact of foreign exchange rates in the near-term quarters.

What are your key takeaways from the recent earnings report? - William Nance (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division)

2025Q4: Q4 and early Q1 GMV strength... included some FX tailwinds from a strengthened USD. For 2026, the guidance assumes these tailwinds will normalize. - [Ofer Koren](CFO)

How did FX impacts and same-store sales performance in Q4 differ, and what is the outlook for 2026? - Unknown Analyst (Jefferies, on for Samad Samana)

2025Q3: FX was stable in Q3 with no significant impact... It is also expected to be stable in Q4 with no material shifts foreseen. - [Ofer Koren](CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

De minimis Regulatory Impact and Trade Volume Outlook

Contradiction on the material impact of de minimis changes on trade volume.

Can you provide more details on your revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter? - William Nance (Goldman Sachs)

2025Q4: Increased demand is also expected from global tariff changes in the U.S. and upcoming EU de minimis removal. - [Nir Debbi](President)

What are the growth drivers, key dependencies for the outlook, and the timeline for new merchant implementations this year? - William Nance (Goldman Sachs)

2025Q2: Trading has been resilient despite recent changes to the de minimis exemption, with no material impact observed. - [Amir Schlachet](CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Same-Store Sales (SSS) Trends and Macroeconomic Impact

Contradiction on the direction and strength of same-store sales trends.

What are your key insights on the recent earnings report? - William Nance (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division)

2025Q4: Q4 and early Q1 GMV strength was driven by... very strong same-store sales (well above multiyear averages)... - [Ofer Koren](CFO)

Explain the difference between FX impacts and same-store sales strength in Q4, and the assumptions for 2026? - William Nance (Goldman Sachs)

2025Q1: same-store sales are slightly below the multi-year average... - [Nir Debbi](President)

Contradiction Point 5

Financial Impact of Shopify Payments Integration

Contradiction on the financial effect (revenue recognition) of integrating Shopify Payments.

What are your thoughts on the earnings report? - James Faucette (Morgan Stanley, Research Division)

2025Q4: The key change is full integration with Shopify Payments... Contribution in 2026 is expected to be neutral to slightly negative in H1 as it ramps up... - [Amir Schlachet](CEO), [Ofer Koren](CFO)

What are the key changes in Shopify Managed Markets version 2.0 and their impact on the 2026 outlook? - Chris Zhang (UBS)

2025Q1: This will positively impact sales and marketing expenses (via a revenue share component) and is expected to have a limited overall impact on the bottom line... - [Nir Debbi](President), [Ofer Koren](CFO)