Glencore's 2024 Earnings: A Tale of Missed Expectations and Resilience

Glencore's 2024 earnings report has left investors with a mix of emotions, as the company's earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst expectations. However, the story of Glencore's performance is not one of despair, but rather a testament to the company's resilience and adaptability in the face of varying market conditions.

The primary factor contributing to Glencore's EPS miss was the significant decline in energy coal prices, which impacted the company's earnings more than expected. The progressive normalization of energy markets following the severe disruptions and extreme volatilities seen in 2022-23 led to a 16% drop in average energy coal prices year over year. This decline, coupled with the weaker performance of the energy coal segment, resulted in a 16% decrease in Adjusted EBITDA for the Industrial segment (Glencore, 2025).

Despite the challenges faced by the energy coal segment, Glencore's diversified business model across industrial and marketing businesses proved adept in navigating the range of market conditions. The company's Adjusted EBITDA for the full year was $14.4 billion, down 16% from 2023, while Funds from operations (FFO) increased by 11% to $10.5 billion (Glencore, 2025).

Glencore's strong operational performance, along with another strong Marketing contribution, supported the generation of Adjusted EBITDA and FFO. The company's Industrial assets delivered full-year production numbers within their original guidance ranges, resulting in a 4% growth in copper equivalent volumes year over year. This growth was supported by the addition of EVR's steelmaking coal volumes from July 2024, and the company models a 4% compound annual growth rate to 2028 in copper equivalents from 2024 (Glencore, 2025).

Glencore's capital allocation strategy aligns with its long-term growth objectives, as the company announced a total of $2.2 billion in shareholder returns for 2024. This includes a $1.2 billion base cash distribution and a $1.0 billion share buyback. The company's strong financial performance, despite the decline in Adjusted EBITDA due to lower energy coal prices, demonstrates its ability to generate healthy cash flows and maintain a strong balance sheet (Glencore, 2025).

In conclusion, Glencore's 2024 earnings report tells a story of missed expectations, but also one of resilience and adaptability. The company's diversified business model and strong operational performance have enabled it to navigate varying market conditions and maintain a solid foundation for future growth. As investors look ahead, they should consider the potential risks and opportunities presented by Glencore's capital allocation strategy and its ability to generate long-term value for shareholders.