Glassnode: Bitcoin Supply Distribution Above $80,000 Forms Persistent Price Barrier

Bitcoin price remains under pressure as it tests a key resistance zone above $80,000. On January 15, 2026, onchain analytics platform Glassnode highlighted that the coin is facing a dense cluster of supply from long-term holders accumulated between April and July 2025. This supply zone has historically prevented BTC from establishing a durable bullish trend.

The price has been bouncing between $80,000 and $95,000 for several weeks, with repeated attempts to break through the upper boundary failing to gain traction. This behavior suggests that institutional and large whale participants continue to act as sellers in this range, preventing price from moving higher in a sustained manner.

Market observers are closely watching whether Bitcoin can stabilize above $98,300, which represents the average cost basis of recent buyers. Sustained trading above this level would indicate that new demand is absorbing overhead supply and maintaining profitability for short-term holders.

Why Has This Supply Zone Become a Persistent Barrier?

The supply zone between $93,000 and $109,000 contains a large amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors. These investors accumulated during the bullish phase of the second quarter of 2025 and have been gradually distributing their holdings since the end of the year. This selling activity has created a strong overhead supply dynamic that has repeatedly stalled price advances.

Glassnode's heatmap analysis shows that each attempt to break through the upper boundary of this zone has encountered renewed selling pressure, reinforcing the idea that this range acts as a transition barrier between corrective phases and sustained bull markets.

What Are the Key Levels to Watch in the Near Term?

Bitcoin price is currently testing the $93,471 resistance level, which sits just below the $95,000 psychological threshold. A successful breakout above this level would increase the likelihood of a move toward $95,000. If Bitcoin flips this resistance into support and sustains trading above it, the next phase of the bull trend could begin.

On the other hand, a failure to hold above $91,298 could see the price retreat toward $90,000 and potentially test $89,241. Losing $87,210 would invalidate the current bullish narrative and likely trigger a deeper correction phase.

How Have Institutional and Spot Market Flows Evolved?

Institutional balance-sheet flows have stabilized after a prolonged period of heavy outflows. Spot ETFs have re-established themselves as primary marginal buyers, while corporate and sovereign treasuries have seen sporadic inflows during consolidation phases.

Spot market behavior has shown early signs of improvement, with major exchanges like Binance transitioning into a net-buying regime. Coinbase, which had been a consistent source of sell-side pressure during the consolidation phase, has significantly reduced its distribution activity.

What Do Derivatives and Options Indicators Suggest About Volatility Outlook?

Options markets continue to price in elevated downside convexity despite improving spot and derivatives positioning. Implied volatility remains low across the curve, indicating that volatility risk is being deferred rather than resolved.

The short gamma structure near the current price level means that dealers are short gamma around spot. This environment reinforces price moves rather than absorbs them, creating a fragile form of stability. If momentum develops, it is more likely to accelerate than fade.

What Are Analysts Expecting for the Immediate Outlook?

The current phase appears increasingly constructive, with sell pressure easing and volatility risk deferred. Institutional flows and ETF demand are stabilizing, suggesting that much of the late-2025 sell-side pressure has now been absorbed.

Looking ahead to Q1 2026, relatively modest inflows may generate outsized price responses if spot accumulation and ETF-led institutional demand continue to rebuild. The recent consolidation phase may serve as a base for renewed trend expansion, particularly if Bitcoin can absorb the overhead supply without significant losses.