Is Glacier Bancorp (GBCI) a Buy Before Earnings? A Deep Dive Into Earnings Expectations, Strategic Moves, and Valuation Metrics

Glacier Bancorp (GBCI) is poised for a pivotal moment as it prepares to release its second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 24, 2025, with a follow-up investor conference call scheduled for July 25. For investors, the question looms: Is GBCI a buy before earnings? To answer this, we must dissect the company's earnings expectations, recent performance, and the strategic acquisition of Bank of Idaho, all while evaluating valuation metrics and risks.

Earnings Expectations: Optimism Amid Sequential Hiccups

Analysts project a 34.5% year-over-year earnings growth and 23.6% revenue growth for Q2 2025, with EPS expected to rise 28.4% annually. These figures are anchored by Q1 results, where net income surged 67% YoY to $54.57 million, driven by a 3.04% net interest margin (up from 2.83% in Q1 2024). However, sequential performance dipped 12% in Q1, and non-performing assets rose 42% quarter-over-quarter. While the net interest margin expansion is encouraging, the deterioration in asset quality raises concerns about the sustainability of margins.

The upcoming earnings report will be critical in determining whether Glacier Bancorp has stabilized its asset quality while maintaining its cost-competitive funding strategy. A reduction in non-performing assets or a slowdown in delinquency rates would signal effective risk management, bolstering confidence in the projected 28.4% EPS growth.

Strategic M&A: A Double-Edged Sword

Glacier Bancorp's acquisition of Bank of Idaho Holding Co. for $1.3 billion in April 2025 is a defining factor in its short-term trajectory. The deal, expected to integrate into three existing divisions by Q3 2025, adds $1.3 billion in assets and expands the company's footprint in key markets. This acquisition is projected to drive loan growth and deposit base expansion, potentially offsetting the drag from asset quality issues.

However, integration risks remain. The company's Q1 funding strategy shift—reducing Federal Home Loan Bank advances by 16% while increasing repurchase agreements by 4%—suggests a focus on short-term liquidity optimization. If the Bank of Idaho integration is delayed or encounters operational friction, these efforts could strain earnings in the near term. Investors must weigh the long-term growth potential against the immediate risks of integration costs and asset quality headwinds.

Recent Performance: Bullish Technicals, Cautious Fundamentals

As of July 22, 2025, GBCI trades at $45.68, with a P/E ratio of 24.30, slightly above the regional bank average of 22.10. The stock has outperformed the S&P 500 in the past two weeks (+1.4% vs. SPY's +1.3%) but underperformed the broader market over 30 days (17.1% vs. SPY's 22.7%). Notably, the stock is trading above both its 30-day ($43.14) and 200-day ($44.79) moving averages, a bullish technical signal.

Analyst price targets are mixed but generally optimistic. The average 12-month target of $49.50 implies an 8.39% upside, with a high of $52.00 (13.84% upside) and a low of $45.68 (0% upside). Recent upgrades, including Janney Montgomery Scott's shift from “Neutral” to “Buy” and Raymond James' reaffirmation of “Outperform,” reflect confidence in the company's strategic direction. However, the presence of a “Hold” rating from some analysts underscores lingering caution about asset quality and integration risks.

Dividend Strength and Institutional Confidence

Glacier Bancorp's 161 consecutive quarterly dividends and 49 dividend increases highlight its commitment to shareholder returns. The latest quarterly payout of $0.33 per share, declared on June 24, 2025, yields approximately 2.9% at current prices, making it an attractive income stock. Institutional sentiment is similarly split, with some investors increasing holdings while others trim positions, reflecting divergent views on short-term risks.

Valuation and Risks: A Balancing Act

While GBCI's P/E ratio of 24.30 is reasonable for a regional bank with growth aspirations, it is not without risks. The company's asset quality metrics—particularly the 42% quarterly increase in non-performing assets—remain a red flag. Additionally, the Bank of Idaho integration could introduce operational inefficiencies, potentially delaying the anticipated revenue synergies.

Investment Thesis: A Cautious “Buy” With Conditions

Glacier Bancorp presents a compelling case for investors willing to tolerate short-term volatility. The company's strong net interest margin, strategic M&A, and robust dividend history position it for long-term growth. However, the near-term risks—asset quality deterioration and integration challenges—require careful monitoring.

For investors considering a pre-earnings purchase:
1. Earnings Beat as a Catalyst: A Q2 report exceeding $0.38 EPS estimates could trigger a re-rating of the stock, especially if asset quality stabilizes.
2. Price Target Convergence: The narrowing gap between the current price ($45.68) and the average target ($49.50) suggests limited downside, but a pullback to the 30-day moving average ($43.14) could offer a more attractive entry point.
3. Strategic Patience: If earnings miss expectations due to integration costs, a long-term hold may be warranted, as the Bank of Idaho acquisition is expected to drive growth by Q3.

In conclusion, GBCI is a conditional buy before earnings. Investors should allocate capital based on their risk tolerance, with a focus on post-earnings clarity and the company's ability to navigate asset quality challenges. For those who prioritize stability, a “Hold” remains prudent until the integration of Bank of Idaho is fully realized.