Gitcoin/Tether GTCUSDT Market Overview

• Gitcoin/Tether (GTCUSDT) formed a bullish recovery from 0.275 to 0.293 before consolidating near 0.284.
• RSI and MACD signaled mixed momentum, with RSI near overbought at 68 and MACD trending flat.
• Volatility expanded early, with a 3.3% intraday range, but volume waned near highs, hinting at profit-taking.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion early, with price retreating to the mid-band as sellers emerged after 05:00 ET.
• Fibonacci levels at 0.282 and 0.285 marked key consolidation points, with 61.8% retracement at 0.285 acting as support.

Gitcoin/Tether (GTCUSDT) opened at 0.28 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 0.293 before closing at 0.284 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a 24-hour volume of ~617,500 and a total turnover of $175,400. Price action showed a strong rally during early trading hours but stalled near resistance, indicating potential bearish pressure.

Structure and formations reveal a key support zone forming around 0.282–0.284, marked by a cluster of candle closes and retests. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 05:00 ET as the pair broke above 0.29 from 0.287, but a long upper wick on the 05:15–05:30 ET candles suggested sellers capped the move. A small doji at 09:15 ET signaled indecision, while bearish harami patterns appeared after 09:30 ET, hinting at potential reversal. Resistance levels to watch include 0.290 and 0.293, both of which have been tested multiple times with bearish outcomes.

The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart converged around 0.286–0.287 by midday, indicating short-term bullish momentum but with a lag as prices drifted lower. On the daily chart, the 50 and 200-period lines remained separated, with price trading below both, signaling medium-term bearish bias. A cross above the 50-period line could trigger retests of the 0.291–0.293 range.

MACD remained near neutral, with the line crossing the signal line once during the morning rally but failing to maintain positive momentum. RSI reached 68, suggesting overbought conditions but lacking follow-through. Bollinger Bands expanded during the morning rally, with price retreating to the mid-band as bearish volume increased. This suggests a contraction in volatility as traders locked in profits.

Volume spiked in the early morning rally to over 115,000, but declined significantly after 09:30 ET despite the price staying near 0.284–0.285. This divergence suggests weakening bullish conviction. Turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with a peak at 0.291 and a pullback in the final 4 hours. A breakdown below 0.282 would align with Fibonacci’s 61.8% retracement level, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.275–0.293 swing show 0.282 as a key support and 0.285 as a critical resistance. A break below 0.282 could target 0.279, while a sustained move above 0.285 could retest 0.291–0.293. On the daily chart, a key swing from 0.275 to 0.293 aligns with similar retracement levels, with 0.283 marking a potential pivot.

Backtest Hypothesis

The suggested backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on bullish engulfing or morning star patterns occurring near the 20-period moving average, with a stop-loss placed below the prior swing low. This aligns with the observed 05:00 ET engulfing pattern, which could have triggered entry at 0.290 with a stop at 0.285. While the move stalled, a stronger volume confirmation might have improved success. Incorporating RSI overbought levels as a filter could help avoid false breakouts, as seen in the 09:15 doji.