Gitcoin/Tether (GTCUSDT) 24-Hour Market Overview

Summary
• Gitcoin/Tether (GTCUSDT) opened at $0.185 and closed at $0.182 after a volatile 24-hour session.
• Price action showed bearish momentum with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels tested.
• High volume surges at key support levels suggest potential reversal attempts.

Gitcoin/Tether (GTCUSDT) opened the 24-hour window at $0.185 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.182 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-12. The pair reached a high of $0.188 and a low of $0.174 during the period. Total trading volume was approximately 1,198,775.7 units, with notional turnover of $212,500.5 based on the data provided. The price structure reflected a bearish bias, with key support and resistance levels tested throughout the session.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLC data revealed several notable patterns. A key support zone formed between $0.179 and $0.182, with multiple candles closing near this level, indicating consolidation or potential bounce scenarios. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed around the $0.186–$0.184 range, signaling continued downward pressure. Doji and narrowing range candles in the early afternoon (ET) suggested indecision and potential exhaustion in the bearish trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, Gitcoin/Tether (GTCUSDT) closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming the bearish bias. The 20-period MA was at ~$0.1855, and the 50-period MA at ~$0.1865. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200 MA lines are likely aligned in a descending formation (not fully visible in the 15-min data), reinforcing the downtrend context.

MACD & RSI

The RSI moved into oversold territory around $0.179, dipping below 30 for a short period, suggesting a possible short-term rebound. The MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence as price pulled back to support, but with no clear positive momentum from the indicator. The negative crossover and bearish MACD readings aligned with the bearish bias of the RSI.

Bollinger Bands

The price moved within the Bollinger Bands throughout the period, with the 20-period standard deviation channel ranging between $0.179 and $0.186. A contraction in the band width occurred during the mid-morning hours, indicating a potential breakout or continuation scenario. By the end of the 24-hour period, the price was near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at key support levels ($0.179–$0.182), particularly in the early evening and late night hours (ET), suggesting accumulation or order block formation. Notional turnover also increased during these periods, confirming the significance of the support area. However, a divergence appeared between volume and price as the price continued to drop despite increased volume, suggesting a potential exhaustion of the bearish move or possible rejection of further downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the major swing from $0.188 to $0.174 showed the price consolidating around the 61.8% level (~$0.179–$0.181), indicating a key area to watch for a potential bounce. On the 15-minute chart, smaller retracements showed the price hitting 38.2% and 61.8% levels before continuing the downward trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

To test the “buy at support, sell at resistance” strategy, a precise definition of support and resistance is essential. A viable approach is using a Donchian Channel with a 20-period look-back (i.e., the lowest 20-period low as support and the highest 20-period high as resistance). This method quantifies dynamic levels and allows for mechanical entry and exit rules.

Price triggers could be based on daily closes, as they offer a clean signal generation framework. For risk control, a 2% stop-loss and a 5% take-profit would be prudent to limit downside risk while capturing directional momentum. The maximum holding period could be set to 7 days to prevent long-term exposure in case of adverse price action.

The performance will be benchmarked against HOLD.P (a holding ETF), but the primary focus will be on the strategy’s relative strength and risk-adjusted returns. Once these parameters are confirmed, I will run the back-test from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-12, generate trade signals, and produce a performance report with an equity curve for review.