Gilead's Oncology Revolution: Why Now is the Time to Buy GILD

The oncology landscape is undergoing a seismic shift, and Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) stands at the epicenter of this transformation. Recent data from pivotal trials in breast cancer, multiple myeloma, and glioblastoma—presented at the 2025 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) and European Hematology Association (EHA) conferences—highlight a portfolio poised to redefine treatment paradigms. With Trodelvy’s first-line expansion, CAR-T pipeline breakthroughs, and strategic execution, GILD is primed for a valuation reset. Here’s why investors should act now.

Trodelvy’s First-Line Triumph: A New Standard in mTNBC

The Phase 3 ASCENT-04 trial delivered a landmark result: the combination of Trodelvy (sacituzumab govitecan) + Keytruda (pembrolizumab) achieved statistically significant progression-free survival (PFS) improvement in first-line PD-L1+ metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (mTNBC). This marks the first-ever demonstration of a TROP-2 antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) combined with immunotherapy in early-line metastatic breast cancer.

The implications are profound:
- Market Disruption: mTNBC, a notoriously aggressive subtype with a 5-year survival rate of just 12%, has long lacked effective first-line options. The Trodelvy-anti-PD-1 combo now positions itself to replace chemotherapy as the new standard of care, capturing a $2B+ addressable market.
- Commercial Momentum: With Trodelvy already approved in over 50 countries for second-line mTNBC and HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer, this data unlocks first-line adoption in PD-L1+ patients—a subset representing ~40% of mTNBC cases.
- Regulatory Catalyst: Gilead plans to seek accelerated approvals in the U.S. and EU by Q4 2025, with OS data maturing by mid-2026. This timeline aligns with the 2025 ASCO presentation that already generated investor buzz.

CAR-T Pipeline: From Blood Cancers to Solid Tumor Breakthroughs

GILD’s Kite Pharma unit is no longer just a leader in blood cancers—its CAR-T innovations are now tackling high-unmet-need solid tumors, a market worth $20B+ by 2030.

1. Anitocabcel (anti-BCMA CAR-T) in Myeloma

At EHA 2025, updated data from the iMMagine-1 Phase 2 trial showcased anitocabcel’s efficacy in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM). While specific metrics remain under wraps, the therapy’s Fast Track and RMAT designations signal regulatory priority. With Phase 3 data expected in 2026, anitocabcel could complement or outperform existing BCMA-targeted therapies like BMS’s Abecma, capturing a $1.5B+ myeloma CAR-T market.

2. Glioblastoma CAR-T: A First-in-Human Milestone

The Phase 1 trial presented at ASCO demonstrated the safety and tolerability of a bivalent CAR-T targeting EGFR and IL13Rα2, delivered via intracerebroventricular infusion. This approach directly addresses glioblastoma’s resistance to standard therapies, offering hope for patients with a median survival of just 15 months. While early, the study’s success opens the door to Phase 2 expansion and positions GILD as a pioneer in solid tumor CAR-T, a field with limited competition.

Strategic Value: Portfolio Diversification & Execution

GILD’s oncology engine is diversified across solid and blood cancers, with Trodelvy’s global approvals and CAR-T’s pipeline depth creating a dual revenue stream:
- Trodelvy’s Breadth: Beyond mTNBC, ongoing trials (ASCENT-03, ASCENT-07) aim to expand into HR+/HER2- breast cancer and lung/gynecologic cancers, leveraging its TROP-2 mechanism.
- CAR-T Synergy: The Arcellx partnership for anitocabcel ensures rapid development, while the glioblastoma program’s academic collaboration (University of Pennsylvania) underscores scientific rigor.

Investment Thesis: 20-30% Upside With Mitigated Risks

Why Buy GILD Now?
- Valuation Discount: At 12x 2025E EV/EBITDA, GILD trades at a 40% discount to peers despite its oncology catalysts.
- Catalyst Clarity: ASCENT-04’s PFS data, anitocabcel’s Phase 3 readout, and glioblastoma Phase 2 data create a 2025–2026 inflection point.
- Execution Track Record: GILD’s commercial rollout of Trodelvy and Kite’s CAR-T manufacturing expertise reduce execution risk.

Risks? Yes, but Manageable:
- Regulatory Delays: ASCENT-04’s OS data may extend timelines, but PFS alone could secure accelerated approval.
- Safety Concerns: CAR-T’s cytokine release syndrome (CRS) is well-characterized, and GILD’s protocols mitigate risk.

Conclusion: GILD is a Buy—Act Before the Catalysts Arrive

The data from ASCO/EHA confirm that GILD is no longer just a biotech play—it’s a full-fledged oncology powerhouse. With Trodelvy’s first-line expansion, CAR-T’s solid tumor forays, and strategic partnerships, the company is positioned to capture $3B+ in incremental revenue by 2027. At current valuations, this represents a 20–30% upside.

The catalysts are clear, the risks are mitigated, and the opportunity is now. Investors who wait risk missing the Trodelvy-driven valuation uplift already priced in by forward-thinking peers.

Recommendation: Buy GILD with a 12-month price target of $100.

Disclosure: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.