GIGGLETRY Market Overview: Volatility Intensifies Amid Mixed Momentum

Summary

• Price surged over 36% on a 15-minute timeframe before consolidating in overnight trading.• Strong bullish momentum seen in early hours, followed by mixed divergence later.• Volume surged during key upswings but failed to confirm follow-through.• RSI hit overbought levels, hinting at possible exhaustion or pullback.• Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the 20:30 ET surge, signaling high volatility.

Market Overview

Giggle Fund/Turkish Lira (GIGGLETRY) opened at 7,776 on 2025-11-05 12:00 ET and surged to 11,465 during the session, before closing at 10,697 at 2025-11-06 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was 7,679 to 11,460, with total volume of 369,354.936 and estimated turnover of $3.75B.

The candlestick pattern formed a large bullish engulfing structure during the 19:30 to 20:30 ET timeframe, indicating a strong short-term reversal. However, the subsequent price action showed signs of consolidation and bearish divergence, especially in the late-night hours. This suggests a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a notable bullish engulfing pattern at the 20:30 ET time window, where it surged from 10,544 to 11,273. This was followed by a bearish harami pattern at 00:00 ET, where price opened at 11,020 and closed at 10,954—signaling potential exhaustion. Key resistance appears to be forming near 11,460, with support levels emerging around 10,350 and 9,931.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in bullish alignment, with price above both. On the daily timeframe, the 50-day MA is trending upward, crossing the 100-day MA, while the 200-day MA remains neutral to bearish. This indicates potential for continued upward momentum in the short to medium term if buyers regain control.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a sharp positive divergence during the 20:30 to 22:30 ET hours, confirming the bullish breakout. However, the histogram has been tapering off since 00:30 ET, suggesting waning momentum. The RSI hit overbought territory (above 75) multiple times, particularly during the 20:30 to 22:30 ET window, which could point to a temporary top.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a notable expansion during the 20:30 ET surge, with price breaching the upper band—a signal often associated with high volatility and potential exhaustion. However, as the session wore on, price retracted into the band, indicating some consolidation and uncertainty.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 19:30 to 20:30 ET window, with over 13,000.016 units traded, confirming the breakout. However, volume declined during the 00:00 to 02:00 ET hours despite continued price fluctuations, suggesting some divergence in conviction. Notional turnover reached $3.75B for the session, indicating strong participation during key moments.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the 15-minute swing high of 11,460 and swing low of 10,153, the 61.8% Fibonacci level sits at approximately 10,933, which aligns with the 23:00 ET close. Price has bounced off this level twice and may face further resistance here. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the prior leg down is near 10,500, which could offer near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

To simulate a strategy based on the observed 15-minute breakout pattern and subsequent consolidation, we need to clarify how the exit rule will be modeled. Given the dynamic nature of this move, we propose using a 48-hour exit rule only (Option A), as the price target of 10,800 does not consistently align with the entry points used across the 15-minute timeframe. This approach ensures uniformity and simplifies the backtesting process without overfitting to specific price levels. Using a 48-hour exit rule also aligns with the observed pattern duration and provides a realistic measure of holding period risk.