GFL's February 11 Catalyst: Assessing the Trade Setup

The next major event for GFL is now set. The company has rescheduled its fourth-quarter earnings call to Wednesday February 11, 2026, with the release of its Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance scheduled after the market closes on that day. This creates a clear binary setup for the stock.

The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode ahead of this catalyst. Analyst sentiment is divided, with price targets ranging from $48.00 to $60.00. This wide dispersion-spanning a 25% gap-highlights the uncertainty around what the February 11 results will reveal. The stock trades at a consensus price target implying significant upside, but also faces a valuation floor from more skeptical views.

For an event-driven strategist, this is the precise setup. The February 11 call is the catalyst that could trigger a re-rating. The quality of the 2026 guidance, in particular, will be scrutinized as a signal for growth trajectory and margin stability. Given the current range of analyst targets, a clear beat or miss on expectations could swiftly narrow that spread and move the stock decisively in one direction.

The 2025 Performance: Strengths and Key Headwinds

The company's 2025 results present a clear split between operational execution and strategic setbacks. On the positive side, the core Solid Waste business demonstrated resilience, with organic revenue increasing by 5.6% year-over-year. This growth was driven by disciplined pricing and volume management, showing the company's ability to generate top-line expansion without relying on acquisitions.

That organic momentum stands in contrast to the historical growth engine. From 2021 to 2023, GFL's revenue was boosted by a powerful M&A cycle, which contributed an average annual growth of 15.6%. The shift away from that model makes the current organic growth rate a more critical metric for the future. The bear case, however, points to a more troubling figure: the company's net asset value per share (NAVPS) decreased by 4% to C$6.43. This decline is directly linked to a 12-month delay in the SD project, a key capital initiative.

This creates a central tension for investors. The solid organic growth in waste operations is a positive sign for recurring cash flows. Yet the NAVPS drop signals a tangible hit to shareholder equity value from a strategic delay. Separating sustainable organic growth from one-time M&A-driven expansion is essential, but the SD project setback introduces a new headwind that could pressure future returns. For the February 11 catalyst, the market will be watching to see if management can articulate a clear path to closing that gap.

The 2026 Guidance and Valuation Risk/Reward

The February 11 guidance is the make-or-break moment. It must bridge a clear gap: the company's organic revenue increasing by 5.6% year-over-year versus the 4% decline in net asset value per share (NAVPS) to C$6.43. The bear case argues the strategy to eliminate low-margin volumes is working, but the operational metrics are brutal. Production volume (PV output) plunged 31% year-over-year to 10.9kt, marking the weakest performance in a decade. At the same time, cash costs surged 52% year-over-year to $3.84 per pound. This combination of collapsing volume and soaring costs is the major operational risk that guidance must address.

Management's task is to validate that the long-term strategy outweighs this short-term pain. The guidance needs to show a clear path to stabilizing volumes and controlling costs, while reaffirming the NAVPS trajectory. Any failure to articulate this could confirm the bear thesis and trigger a sharp re-rating.

Valuation provides a clear benchmark for the outcome. The current analyst price target range is wide, from $48.00 to $60.00. This 25% spread reflects the binary nature of the catalyst. A strong guidance package that addresses the volume and cost issues could push the stock toward the higher end of that range. Conversely, guidance that acknowledges ongoing weakness or fails to provide a credible turnaround plan would likely anchor the stock near the lower target. The consensus price target of $57.18 implies significant upside, but also leaves room for disappointment if the February 11 results fall short of even modest expectations.

Catalysts and Risks: What to Watch on February 11

The February 11 catalyst is binary. The stock's immediate direction hinges on whether the Q4 results and 2026 guidance align with the recent analyst price target range of $48.00 to $60.00. The market is pricing in a wide spread of outcomes, and management must narrow that uncertainty with clear, credible numbers.

The primary data point is the trajectory of cash costs and PV output. These remain the most visible operational headwinds. The company reported a 52% year-over-year surge in cash costs to $3.84 per pound alongside a 31% year-over-year drop in PV output. Guidance must show a definitive plan to stabilize these metrics. Any acknowledgment of continued weakness or a lack of a turnaround roadmap would likely confirm the bear case and anchor the stock near the lower end of the target range.

Equally critical is management's commentary on the SD project delay. The 12-month setback directly contributed to the 4% decline in net asset value per share (NAVPS) to C$6.43. Investors need reassessment: Is the delay now fully reflected? Does the 2026 plan incorporate a revised timeline and capital allocation? A vague or defensive response here would reinforce concerns about shareholder value destruction and pressure the valuation floor.

The bottom line is that the February 11 call must bridge a clear gap. It must validate that the solid organic growth in the core waste business can offset the severe operational pain in the production side. The consensus price target of $57.18 implies significant upside, but that premium is entirely contingent on management delivering a credible path forward. Watch for specific, measurable targets in the guidance to see if they meet or exceed the high end of the analyst range.