GFL Environmental Surges 5.7% – Is This the Catalyst for GFL’s Record Move?

Summary
• GFL Environmental’s stock price jumped 5.71% intraday, trading at $50.32 as of 19:21 ET
• The company announced progress on its GIP stake sale, with CEO Patrick Dovigi stating it’s 'on the five-yard line'
• Q2 earnings highlighted 6.8% organic growth, driven by pricing and volume expansion in Canada and the U.S.

GFL Environmental’s stock is trading at its highest level in months, fueled by a combination of robust earnings, strategic M&A activity, and a high-stakes GIP stake sale. With the stock surging beyond its 52-week high of $52, investors are now scrutinizing whether this momentum is sustainable or a short-term spike.

Earnings Momentum and Strategic Catalysts Drive GFL’s Surge
GFL Environmental’s 5.71% intraday rally is anchored by its Q2 earnings report, which highlighted 6.8% organic growth and a 30.7% EBITDA margin—its highest second-quarter margin on record. The company also reiterated progress on its GIP stake sale, with Dovigi confirming two final bidders remain in negotiations. This development, combined with a $24.4 million stake sale in Q2 and a $900 million M&A deployment target, has reinvigorated investor confidence. Additionally, the company’s long-term EPR and RNG investments, along with fleet electrification plans, signal a durable growth trajectory, particularly in Canada where EPR contracts are accelerating.

Waste Management Sector Mixed as GFL Outpaces Peers
The Waste Management sector remains fragmented, with GFL Environmental’s 5.71% gain starkly contrasting Waste Management (WM)’s 1.01% decline. GFL’s outperformance reflects its aggressive M&A strategy and GIP monetization, while peers like Waste Connections (WCN) and Clean Harbors (CLH) face margin pressures from rising fuel costs and regulatory headwinds. GFL’s 30.7% EBITDA margin also exceeds the sector’s average of ~25%, underscoring its operational discipline and pricing power.

High-Leverage Call Options and ETF Plays for GFL’s Bullish Momentum
• 200-day average: $46.36 (below current price); RSI: 52.49 (neutral); MACD: -0.28 (bearish divergence with price)
• Bollinger Bands: $46.78–$48.69 (price above upper band, indicating overbought conditions)

GFL’s technicals suggest a continuation of its short-term bullish momentum, with key support at $49.51 (200D MA) and resistance at $50.87 (intraday high). A 5% upside target of $52.83 aligns with its 52-week high and recent momentum. The GFL20250815C50 and GFL20250919C50 call options stand out: the former offers 40.91% leverage with 0.5746 delta and 24.13% implied volatility, while the latter provides 20.97% leverage and moderate gamma (0.074985). Both contracts have high turnover (1,731 and 3,030, respectively), ensuring liquidity. Aggressive bulls should consider GFL20250815C50 into a break above $50.87, with a stop-loss below $49.51.

Backtest GFL Environmental Stock Performance
The backtest of GFL's performance after an intraday surge of 6% shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains, with the 3-Day win rate at 53.46%, the 10-Day win rate at 55.56%, and the 30-Day win rate at 61.19%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 5.26%, indicating that such intraday surges can lead to profitable short-term trades.

GFL’s Catalysts Intact – Time to Act on This Bullish Setup
GFL’s surge is underpinned by earnings strength, strategic GIP monetization, and a durable growth pipeline. While technicals hint at overbought conditions, the company’s 30.7% EBITDA margin and $5 billion GIP valuation suggest this momentum is structural. Watch for a $50.87 breakout to confirm the trend, and monitor Waste Management (WM)’s -1.01% move for sector sentiment cues. For now, GFL20250815C50 offers a high-leverage play on this catalyst-driven rally.