Gevo's Q1 2025: Unpacking Contradictions in Carbon Monetization, Project Timelines, and Financial Guidance

Carbon monetization strategy, ATJ30 project timeline, cash spent and cash guidance, ethanol production and RNG capacity, 45Z credit monetization and EBITDA expectations are the key contradictions discussed in Gevo's latest 2025Q1 earnings call



Revenue and Operating Performance:
- Gevo, Inc. reported $29 million in revenue for Q1 2025, driven by approximately two months of operations at Gevo North Dakota.
- This marked a significant improvement compared to past periods, primarily due to the ethanol and carbon sequestration operations at the North Dakota site.

45Z Tax Credit and Carbon Reduction Initiatives:
- Gevo received approval from the IRS to apply for the 45Z tax credit, expected to boost EBITDA growth in upcoming quarters.
- The 45Z credits are becoming monetizable, with Gevo North Dakota expected to benefit from its low carbon intensity score of around 20.

RNG Revenue Growth:
- The RNG subsidiary generated $5.7 million in revenue, reflecting a $1.7 million increase from the previous year.
- This growth was driven by improved carbon scores in the LCFS program, partially offset by lower RIN prices.

Gevo North Dakota Expansion Opportunities:
- Gevo's North Dakota site, with an ethanol plant capacity of 67 million gallons per year, has room for expansion and the addition of alcohol to jet (ATJ) plants.
- The site's favorable location, infrastructure, and supportive local government are key factors in its attractiveness for further development and expansion.