Getlink's Valuation Dilemma: Is a 33.2x P/E Justified in a Slowing Cross-Channel Market?

Getlink (ENXTPA:GET), the operator of Eurotunnel and Europorte, has long been a linchpin in cross-Channel freight transportation. Yet, as of late 2025, its valuation metrics-particularly a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.2x-raise critical questions about sustainability. With cross-border trade volumes and automotive sector demand showing signs of weakness, investors must weigh whether the stock's premium valuation reflects robust fundamentals or speculative optimism.

Valuation Metrics: A Premium Amid Mixed Fundamentals

Getlink's current P/E ratio of 33.2x starkly contrasts with the European infrastructure industry average of 14.7x and its own historical P/E of 24.2x at the end of 2024. This premium suggests market confidence in the company's ability to outperform peers, a narrative supported by its 2024 performance. Despite a 14% EBITDA decline from Eleclink's shutdown, Getlink maintained its 2025 EBITDA guidance of €780–830 million, driven by Eurotunnel's resilience. However, this optimism clashes with cash flow-based valuations.

Discounted cash flow models from Alpha Spread and Simply Wall St estimate fair values of €8.50 and €7.66 per share, respectively, far below the current price of €15.74. These models imply overvaluation of 46–102.8%, underscoring a disconnect between earnings multiples and cash flow generation. Analysts project annual earnings growth of 7.8% and revenue growth of 3.2%, but such forecasts hinge on a recovery in cross-Channel traffic-a sector increasingly strained by macroeconomic headwinds.

Peer Comparisons: A Tale of Two Valuations

Getlink's valuation appears inflated relative to both industry benchmarks and direct peers. While its P/E of 33.2x exceeds the infrastructure sector average according to industry data, it also outpaces its listed peers' average P/E of 37.3x as reported by market analysis. This anomaly suggests investors are paying a premium for Getlink's unique position in cross-Channel logistics, particularly its rail freight and shuttle services. Yet, this differentiation may not be enough to offset broader market risks.

For instance, Eurotunnel's EBITDA growth in 2025-despite a weak automotive sector-has been a bright spot. However, the company's exposure to volatile cross-border trade means any further slowdown could erode margins. With global supply chains still adjusting to post-pandemic shifts and energy costs remaining elevated, the assumption of sustained earnings growth appears precarious.

Analyst Price Targets: Optimism vs. Reality

Despite DCF valuations pointing to overvaluation, analyst price targets offer a more bullish outlook. The average 12-month target of €17.65 implies an 11% upside from current levels, reflecting expectations of a rebound in traffic volumes or operational efficiencies. This optimism, however, may not account for structural challenges. For example, the Eleclink shutdown has permanently reduced non-core revenue streams, and the company's reliance on Eurotunnel's performance leaves it vulnerable to sector-specific shocks.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Bet on Recovery

Getlink's valuation hinges on a delicate balance: its core operations remain resilient, but macroeconomic and industry-specific risks loom large. While the company's EBITDA guidance and analyst forecasts hint at potential, DCF models and industry multiples suggest the stock is overvalued. Investors must ask whether the current P/E of 33.2x is justified by fundamentals or merely a reflection of speculative hopes for a traffic rebound. In a slowing cross-Channel environment, the answer may determine whether Getlink's premium valuation proves sustainable-or becomes a cautionary tale.