Getlink's EBITDA Guidance Affirms Resilience in Cross-Channel Infrastructure Amid Short-Term Turbulence

In a market where infrastructure stability often serves as a bulwark against economic uncertainty, Getlink SE's reaffirmation of its 2025 EBITDA guidance—€780 million to €830 million—stands as a testament to its operational fortitude. Despite headwinds from the ElecLink interconnector's suspension and the normalization of electricity markets, the French cross-Channel infrastructure giant has demonstrated that its core businesses, Eurotunnel and Europorte, remain robust engines of value creation. For investors, this reaffirmation underscores a compelling narrative of resilience and strategic adaptability in a volatile landscape.

Navigating Short-Term Challenges

Getlink's 2024 EBITDA of €833 million, while below its 2023 level of €979 million, outperformed analyst expectations of €815.49 million. This outperformance was driven by the resilience of Eurotunnel and Europorte, even as the ElecLink unit—a key contributor to 2023's core profits—faced a 57% decline in profitability due to its temporary suspension. The ElecLink shutdown, lasting from late 2024 to early 2025, created a significant drag on the group's financials. Yet, Getlink's ability to offset this loss with steady growth in its core segments highlights its operational depth.

Eurotunnel's H1 2025 performance, in particular, is instructive. Revenue rose 4% year-on-year to €564 million, driven by a 3% increase in Shuttle Services and a 3% gain in Railway Network revenue. The Passenger Shuttle segment transported 985,847 vehicles in H1 2025, maintaining a 59.9% market share in the car segment. Meanwhile, the Railway Network segment saw Eurostar passenger traffic surge 4% to 5.6 million in the first half of the year, buoyed by the reopening of Amsterdam Centraal's international terminal and a strategic partnership with London St. Pancras Highspeed. These moves are not just operational fixes but strategic plays to dominate high-growth rail corridors.

Strategic Acquisitions and Long-Term Positioning

Getlink's recent acquisitions of Associated Shipping Agencies (A.S.A.) and Boulogne International Maritime Services (BIMS) further cement its role as a one-stop provider of cross-Channel logistics. These entities specialize in customs and sanitary formalities for hauliers, a critical service post-Brexit. With offices in Calais, Boulogne, and Dunkirk, the acquired firms bring 20 years of expertise in customs compliance, aligning with Getlink's ambition to digitize and streamline cross-border trade. CEO Yann Leriche emphasized that these moves enhance the company's ability to simplify trade between the UK and EU, a market that will only grow in importance as the Entry-Exit System (EES) controls come into effect in 2025.

The integration of A.S.A. and BIMS into Getlink Customs Services is a masterstroke. By combining these capabilities with its recent acquisition of ChannelPorts Ltd in April 2024, the company has created a comprehensive logistics ecosystem. This ecosystem is not just about volume—it's about value. For instance, the new fare structure for LeShuttle (Eurotunnel's passenger vehicle service) has improved customer flexibility, driving loyalty in a competitive market.

The Europorte Edge: Freight's Quiet Strength

While Eurotunnel steals the spotlight, Europorte's performance is equally noteworthy. The rail freight logistics segment maintained stable revenue of €83 million in H1 2025, with EBITDA up 2% year-on-year to €16 million. This resilience is no accident. Europorte's operations span France and cross-border flows to Belgium and Germany, positioning it to benefit from the gradual recovery in freight demand. In June 2025, Getlink's acquisition of 67% of Electrofer SAS—a rail processing specialist—further bolsters its freight capabilities. This move signals a commitment to long-term infrastructure investment, even as the sector grapples with short-term volatility.

A Dividend Signal and Investment Thesis

Getlink's proposal of a €0.58 per share dividend for 2025, despite ElecLink's drag, reinforces confidence in its capital allocation discipline. For investors, this is a signal that the company prioritizes shareholder returns even amid operational challenges. The reaffirmed EBITDA guidance, coupled with a 19.3% EBITDA margin in Europorte and a 53% margin in Eurotunnel, suggests that Getlink's margins are not only stable but improving.

The strategic rationale for investing in Getlink is threefold:
1. Resilient Core Businesses: Eurotunnel and Europorte have shown they can withstand economic shocks while growing market share.
2. Strategic Diversification: Acquisitions in customs and freight logistics create a moat against competition and regulatory shifts.
3. Long-Term Tailwinds: The normalization of energy markets and ElecLink's expected return to service in 2025 will likely boost EBITDA beyond 2024 levels.

For those wary of short-term volatility, Getlink's reaffirmed guidance and dividend proposal offer a compelling case for a long-term hold. The company's ability to pivot and invest in high-growth areas—such as digital customs services and rail freight—positions it as a bellwether for cross-Channel infrastructure. As the UK-EU trade relationship evolves and energy markets stabilize, Getlink is poised to convert its operational strength into sustained shareholder value.

In a world where infrastructure is increasingly seen as a safe haven, Getlink's story is one of resilience, adaptability, and strategic foresight—a rare combination in today's markets.