Geron’s 2026 Q2 Earnings Call: European Strategy Delays, Gross-to-Net Revisions, and Growth Strategy Shifts

Date of Call: Aug 5, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: Q2 net revenue of $57.5M, up 17% YOY and up 11% QOQ; H1 2026 net revenue grew 24% YOY

Guidance:

• Ritello net product revenue for full year 2026 expected to be at mid to high end of $220-$240M range.
• Total operating expenses for 2026 expected in the range of $230-$240M.

Business Commentary:

Revenue Growth and Commercial Strategy:

• Jaron Corporation reported a 17% year-over-year increase in net revenue for Q2 2026, with sales reaching $57.5 million.
• This growth was driven by the execution of their refocused commercial strategy, which includes expanding Ritello's reach to more eligible patients and strengthening clinical evidence support.

Expense Management and Financial Position:

• The company's total operating expenses decreased by 4% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, while net revenue increased by 24%.
• This was achieved by making prudent investment decisions and benefiting from lower headcount costs due to a workforce reduction in December 2025.

Ritello Demand and Market Penetration:

• Ritello achieved 5% demand growth in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026, with an 8% increase in prescribing accounts.
• The growth is attributed to initiatives focused on identifying appropriate patients earlier in their treatment journey and expanding awareness among healthcare professionals.

Clinical and Scientific Engagement:

• Jaron Corporation presented new real-world evidence at EHA, showing Ritello's safety and efficacy in a broader patient population, consistent with clinical trial data.
• This engagement with the global hematology community is aimed at building confidence in Ritello and supporting its positioning as a standard of care in the second-line setting for low-risk MDS.

Strategic Focus on Myelofibrosis:

• The company is advancing its Phase III IMPACT-MF trial for Relafix, with discussions ongoing with regulatory authorities regarding the interim analysis design.
• The focus remains on ensuring the trial's design appropriately evaluates the therapy's benefit-risk profile, with timelines unchanged for a final overall survival analysis in the second half of 2028.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management expressed excitement about growth: 'We are making and the momentum we are building as we execute our second quarter results demonstrate the continued progress.' and 'We delivered another quarter of net revenue growth...' They are 'well-capitalized and on track' with a 'strong financial position' and 'encouraged by the momentum'.

Q&A:

• Question from Unnamed Analyst: Looking back on last year, seasonality coincided with major company changes; how may seasonality impact the rest of this year?
  Response: The finance and commercial teams manage inventory within a two to four-week range and expect consistent quarter-over-quarter growth with no significant spikes, projecting revenue at the high end of guidance.

• Question from Emily Bodner (H C) Regarding Ritello ordering account growth: Are you seeing increased reordering from existing accounts or growth mainly from new accounts? Also, any increase in persistence/time on therapy?
  Response: Growth is coming from both new and existing accounts, now predominantly driven by community accounts, especially high-tier ones. Duration of therapy is not a tracked metric and is not seen as trending up or down.

• Question from Stephen Willey (Stifel) Regarding the Phase III IMPACT-MF trial: Has there been any contemplation of altering the event threshold for the interim analysis?
  Response: Conversations with regulators focus on ensuring the interim analysis design is appropriate; the trial's overall survival primary endpoint and final analysis timing remain unchanged. The interim modification does not alter the trial design.

• Question from Jonathan (Needham) Regarding EU commercial strategy for Ritello: Are you thinking about pricing dynamics, MFN concerns, and potential partnerships?
  Response: The strategy aims to help as many patients as possible in the U.S. and ex-U.S.; in Europe, the patient opportunity is smaller. The company is engaging with experts and payers, monitoring MFN dynamics, and will provide an optimized ex-U.S. strategy update before year-end, which may include partnerships.

Contradiction Point 1

Growth Strategy in Myelofibrosis (MF)

Contradiction on whether growth is driven by new accounts or increased reordering.

Emily Bodner (H.C. Wainwright) - Emily Bodner (H.C. Wainwright)

2026Q2: Growth is coming from both existing and new accounts, with community accounts now driving the majority. - [Harut Samurjian and Nawawi](CFO)

Is the growth in ordering accounts driven by increased reordering from existing accounts or new accounts, and are patients demonstrating greater persistence and extended therapy duration? - Corinne Johnson (Goldman Sachs)

2026Q1: The strategy focuses on continuous, gradual growth in this metric quarter-over-quarter. The company aims to grow demand in the U.S. in line with its 2026 revenue guidance... - [Harout Semerjian](CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Status of European Commercial Strategy

Contradiction on the timeline for deciding and communicating the European strategy.

What is Jonathan (Needham)'s question? - Jonathan (Needham)

2026Q2: A strategy for Europe, which may include partnerships, will be shared before year-end. - [Harut Samurjian](CFO)

How are pricing dynamics and MFN concerns influencing the EU commercial strategy, and what potential paths forward, including partnerships, are being considered? - Gil Blum (Needham & Company)

2026Q1: A decision on the optimal commercial strategy for ex-U.S. markets will be communicated before the end of 2026. - [Harout Semerjian](CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Gross-to-Net Deduction Expectations

Expectations for gross-to-net deductions shifted from a mid- to high-teens range to a specific low-to-mid 20s projection.

Tara (Stifel) - Tara (Stifel)

2026Q2: The company manages inventory within a 2–4 week range, expects gross-to-net deductions in the low-to-mid 20s, and does not anticipate significant revenue spikes. - [Michelle Robertson](CFO)

Okay, let's tackle this query. The user wants me to rewrite the input into a single concise earnings-call question. The input is: "Looking back on last year, seasonality did coincide with major company changes that were offset by efforts in the back half. Going forward, how may seasonality impact the rest of this year?"First, I need to make sure I understand the input. The user is asking about the impact of seasonality on the current year, referencing last year's situation where seasonality coincided with company changes but was offset later. The key elements here are seasonality, company changes, and the offset efforts in the back half of last year.The task is to form a question that's concise for an earnings call. Earnings call questions are typically direct and focus on financial performance, strategies, or future projections. The original input is a bit wordy and has some background information. The user wants to condense this into a single question.Let me break down the input. The first part is about last year's seasonality and company changes being offset. The second part is about the future impact of seasonality this year. The question is asking how seasonality will affect the rest of this year, considering last year's context.To make this concise, I should focus on the forward-looking part. The original question is "Going forward, how may seasonality impact the rest of this year?" but it's preceded by context about last year. However, the user wants the question to be standalone but still include the necessary context if needed. However, the instructions say to make it a concise earnings-call question. Earnings call questions often don't include past context unless it's directly relevant. But the input's context might be important for the question's clarity.Wait, the input starts with "Looking back on last year..." which is context. The user wants the question to be a single line, ending with a question mark. The output must be exactly one line, no explanations. The original input is a question, so it's a valid question, but it's a bit long. The task is to make it more concise.Let me try to rephrase the original question without the background. The original question is: "Going forward, how may seasonality impact the rest of this year?" But the user wants to include that last year's seasonality coincided with major changes that were offset. However, including that might make the question too long. But the user's instruction is to form a clear earnings-call question. In an earnings call, sometimes context is necessary for the question to make sense. However, the example given in the input is a question, and the user wants to rewrite it into one.Alternatively, maybe the key is to make the question as concise as possible while retaining the necessary context. Let's see. The original input is a question, so the output should be a question. The user's input is a valid question, so according to the rules, if it's already a question and can be rewritten into a concise one, we need to do that. But if it's already a clear question, maybe we can just make it more concise.Original question: "Going forward, how may seasonality impact the rest of this year?" The input has more context before that. But the user wants to combine the context into the question. However, the output must be exactly one line. Let me try to combine the context and the question."How may seasonality impact the rest of this year, considering last year's changes were offset by back-half efforts?" That's one line. But maybe it's too long. Let me check the character count. Let's see:Original input's question part is "Going forward, how may seasonality impact the rest of this year?" which is 38 words. The user wants it concise. The example in the input is a question that can be rewritten. The output must end with a question mark.Alternative phrasing: "How will seasonality affect the remainder of this year, given last year's offsetting efforts?" That's shorter. But does it capture the context of seasonality coinciding with major company changes? The original input mentions "seasonality did coincide with major company changes that were offset by efforts in the back half." So the key points are seasonality, major changes, offset by back-half efforts. The question is about how seasonality will impact the rest of this year.So the concise question should ask about the impact of seasonality on the rest of the year, considering that last year's seasonality was with major changes but offset by efforts. The challenge is to include that context in a concise way.Possible options:1. "How may seasonality impact the rest of this year, considering last year's changes were offset by back-half efforts?"2. "How will seasonality affect the remainder of this year, given last year's major changes and offsetting efforts?"3. "Given last year's seasonality-related changes were offset by back-half efforts - Tara Bancroft (TD Cowen)

2025Q3: The mid- to high-teens range for gross-to-net remains applicable. - [Michelle Robertson](CFO)

Contradiction Point 4

Cadence and Drivers of Revenue Growth

Contradiction on the primary focus for achieving revenue growth—breadth vs. depth of account penetration.

Emily Bodner (H.C. Wainwright) - Emily Bodner (H.C. Wainwright)

2026Q2: Growth is coming from both new and existing accounts, with community accounts now driving the majority. The focus is shifting from breadth to depth in the second half. - [Harut Samurjian and Nawawi](CFO)

Is the growth in Ritello's ordering accounts driven by increased reordering from existing accounts or new accounts, and is there an increase in persistence and time on therapy? - Corinne Jenkins (Goldman Sachs)

2025Q4: Guidance depends on both acquiring new centers and increasing depth with repeat customers, especially in high-volume accounts. The strategy involves adding new accounts (~150 per quarter) for breadth and focused support for existing prescribers for depth. - [Harout Semerjian](CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

European Commercialization Strategy and Timeline

Contradiction on the timing and focus for entering the European market.

What are your thoughts on the earnings call, Jonathan (Needham)? - Jonathan (Needham)

2026Q2: A strategy for Europe, which may include partnerships, will be shared before year-end. - [Harut Samurjian](CFO)

How are you addressing pricing dynamics and MFN concerns in the EU commercial strategy, and what potential paths forward, including partnerships, are being considered? - Stephen Willey (Stifel)

2025Q4: The European approval is a derisked asset, but commercialization requires understanding HTA processes and MFN implications. The strategy is opportunistic, with primary focus remaining on U.S. growth. - [Harout Semerjian](CEO)