Geopolitical Risks in Central Africa Post-ECCAS Withdrawal: Navigating Mining and Infrastructure Investments

The withdrawal of Rwanda from the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) on June 8, 2025, marks a pivotal moment in regional geopolitics, with profound implications for mining and infrastructure investments. The dispute, rooted in Rwanda's exclusion from assuming the ECCAS rotating presidency and longstanding tensions with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), has reignited instability in the Great Lakes region—a hub of critical minerals like cobalt, tin, and tantalum. For investors, this shift demands a nuanced approach to risk management and strategic opportunities in a volatile landscape.

Geopolitical Tensions: A Catalyst for Instability

Rwanda's decision to leave ECCAS followed accusations that the DRC, with support from other member states, systematically undermined its rights within the bloc. The immediate trigger was Rwanda's exclusion from the 2023 ECCAS summit in Kinshasa and the denial of its turn to lead the organization, as mandated by Article 6 of the ECCAS treaty. This dispute reflects deeper bilateral tensions over the M23 rebel group, which controls parts of eastern DRC and is accused of receiving Rwandan military support—a charge Rwanda denies. The European Union has responded with sanctions targeting Rwandan military officials and entities like Gasabo Gold Refinery, which allegedly facilitates illicit gold trade from conflict zones.

The ripple effects are already visible. In March 2025, M23 rebels temporarily seized control of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu, halting production at a site responsible for 4% of global tin concentrates. This disruption triggered an 18% spike in global tin prices, underscoring the region's outsized influence on critical mineral markets. While a Qatar-mediated ceasefire in April 2025 has eased tensions, the risk of renewed conflict—and its impact on mining operations—remains high.

Mining Sector Vulnerabilities

Central Africa holds approximately 30% of the world's critical minerals, yet less than 5% are processed locally. The DRC alone accounts for 60% of global coltan reserves and 70% of cobalt production, vital for lithium-ion batteries and defense electronics. However, the sector's reliance on artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM)—which employs over 10 million people—exposes it to instability. Over 132,000 artisanal miners in eastern DRC's tin and tantalum-rich regions operate in conflict zones, their livelihoods at risk from territorial disputes.

The U.S. has positioned itself as a strategic partner, offering security assistance in exchange for preferential mineral access—a model akin to its Ukraine strategy. A potential framework agreement with the DRC, expected by mid-2025, could formalize this arrangement, including demobilization of M23 rebels and joint border security. However, challenges persist: Chinese firms control 80% of DRC cobalt production and 70% of copper, leveraging long-standing infrastructure investments. U.S. efforts to bypass these dependencies via projects like the Lobito Corridor railway—which links Angola's port to DRC mining zones—face logistical and financial hurdles.

Infrastructure at Risk

Regional infrastructure projects, critical for mineral transport and economic integration, are equally vulnerable. The Lobito Corridor, designed to reduce reliance on Chinese-controlled eastern routes, began partial operations in 2024 but requires $1.5 billion in upgrades to reach its full potential. Meanwhile, the DRC's Inga Dam hydroelectric project, a cornerstone of regional energy security, faces delays due to political instability and funding gaps.

Investors in logistics and energy sectors must weigh these risks against long-term rewards. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has created opportunities for cross-border infrastructure deals, but political fragmentation post-ECCAS withdrawal complicates coordination. Rwanda's departure weakens ECCAS's capacity to mediate disputes, leaving projects like the Central African Pipeline System—targeted for $5 billion in investments—exposed to regional strife.

Investment Strategies for Navigating Risk

1. Focus on ESG-Compliant Players: Investors should prioritize companies with robust environmental and social governance (ESG) frameworks. For example, . Firms like Traxys and Anglo American, which emphasize local beneficiation (mineral processing within Africa), are better positioned to navigate sanctions and supply chain scrutiny.

2. Leverage Infrastructure Partnerships: Projects backed by multilateral institutions like the African Development Bank (AfDB) or the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) offer stability. The AfDB's critical minerals-backed currency mechanism, which pools mineral reserves to secure funding, could attract investors seeking diversified exposure.

3. Diversify Geographically: While the DRC dominates cobalt and coltan, investors should consider Zambia (copper), Namibia (uranium and lithium), and Malawi (graphite). These countries are less entangled in Great Lakes conflicts but face their own governance challenges.

4. Monitor Geopolitical Developments: Track U.S.-China mineral diplomacy. A U.S.-DRC minerals-for-security pact could stabilize tin and tantalum supplies but may face backlash if perceived as neo-colonial. Investors should also watch for ECCAS reforms—should the bloc restructure to address Rwanda's grievances, it could restore some stability.

Conclusion: A High-Reward, High-Risk Landscape

Central Africa's mining and infrastructure sectors offer unparalleled growth potential due to their critical mineral reserves and strategic location. Yet, Rwanda's ECCAS withdrawal has amplified risks tied to geopolitical rivalry, conflict-driven supply disruptions, and governance failures. Investors must adopt a granular approach: prioritize companies with strong local ties, ESG credentials, and partnerships with stabilizing institutions. For the bold, the region's untapped value-add potential—from cobalt processing in the DRC to solar-powered mines in Namibia—could yield outsized returns. But as M23's advances and EU sanctions demonstrate, patience and agility are paramount in this volatile arena.

Investment advice: Consider ETFs tracking African mining stocks (e.g., Market Vectors Africa ETF), but pair them with geopolitical risk hedging. Short-term traders might capitalize on cobalt price volatility, while long-term investors should focus on infrastructure funds tied to AfCFTA projects.