U.S. Geopolitical Influence on Global Chip Manufacturing: Strategic Risks and Opportunities for TSMC and Samsung

The U.S. government's aggressive reshaping of the global semiconductor landscape has placed TSMC and Samsung at the center of a high-stakes geopolitical and economic contest. Recent policy shifts, including the revocation of Validated End-User (VEU) waivers for their Chinese facilities and the imposition of export controls, have forced both companies to recalibrate their strategies. While these measures aim to curb China's access to advanced chipmaking technology, they also create significant operational and financial risks for TSMC and Samsung. At the same time, U.S. incentives like the CHIPS Act and the threat of tariffs have spurred massive investments in domestic manufacturing, offering long-term opportunities for firms willing to navigate the complexities of reshoring.

Strategic Risks: Geopolitical Constraints and Operational Hurdles

The U.S. decision to revoke VEU status for TSMC's Nanjing facility and similar Samsung/SK Hynix operations in China has introduced immediate uncertainty. Previously, these waivers allowed streamlined access to U.S. equipment and materials, bypassing the need for individual export licenses, according to a CNBC report. Now, shipments require case-by-case approvals, slowing production and complicating capacity expansion, as noted by TrendForce. For TSMC, this means its Nanjing plant-critical for 16nm and below-faces potential bottlenecks, despite the company's insistence that it will maintain "uninterrupted operations," per an ING analysis. Samsung, meanwhile, has raised concerns with the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) over ambiguous definitions of terms like "outsourced packaging and testing services," which could further delay compliance, according to Business Korea.

The broader U.S. strategy-curbing China's semiconductor self-sufficiency-has also forced TSMC and Samsung to confront higher costs and regulatory scrutiny. TSMC's Arizona expansion, for instance, has faced delays due to complex permitting, supply chain disruptions, and workforce integration challenges, as reported by Circuit Digest. The first phase of its $165 billion U.S. investment (initially slated for 2024) is now expected to begin production in early 2025, with 3nm and 2nm nodes delayed to 2027–2028, per a WRAL Markets report. Samsung's Texas foundry, while progressing, similarly grapples with high operational costs and the need to balance U.S. subsidies with global market demands, according to CTOL Digital.

Opportunities: Reshoring, Tariff Mitigation, and Technological Leadership

Despite these challenges, U.S. policies have created openings for TSMC and Samsung to secure market dominance in a rapidly evolving industry. TSMC's $200 billion U.S. investment-escalated under pressure from the Trump administration-positions it to capture a significant share of the AI and high-performance computing (HPC) markets, which now account for 60% of its revenue, according to TS2 Tech. The company's advanced 3nm and upcoming 2nm nodes are critical for clients like Apple and NVIDIA, as reported by Tom's Hardware.

Samsung, though trailing TSMC in market share (7.2% vs. 70% in foundry revenue), according to Business Today, is leveraging U.S. subsidies to expand its Texas facility and ramp up production of 8th-generation V-NAND and HBM3E chips, per IC-PCB. While its Q2 2025 operating profit dropped 56% due to U.S. export restrictions and weak AI chip sales, as U.S. News reported, the company remains optimistic about a recovery driven by non-Nvidia clients and new product launches.

The U.S. CHIPS Act, which has allocated $6.6 billion to TSMC and $4.75 billion to Samsung, further incentivizes domestic production, as Investing.com noted. However, these subsidies come with strings attached. The Trump administration's threat of Section 232 tariffs-targeting imports of advanced semiconductors-has pushed both companies to accelerate U.S. investments, according to Monexa. Bank of America analysts argue that TSMC's scale and early mover advantage in the U.S. make it less vulnerable to these tariffs than smaller rivals, as discussed in a Medium analysis, though the long-term sustainability of such large-scale investments remains uncertain.

Geopolitical Implications and Investor Considerations

The U.S.-China technological rivalry has turned TSMC and Samsung into strategic assets-and potential liabilities. TSMC's alignment with U.S. interests has raised concerns in Taiwan about the "hollowing out" of its semiconductor industry, as NPR reported, while Samsung's global supply chain is increasingly exposed to U.S. export controls. For investors, the key risks include subsidy uncertainty (as the Trump administration reevaluates the CHIPS Act, per the National Law Review), rising costs of U.S. manufacturing, and the potential for retaliatory tariffs from trade partners.

Conversely, the AI-driven semiconductor boom offers a compelling upside. TSMC's Q2 2025 revenue surged 44% year-on-year to $30.1 billion, driven by demand for AI accelerators and HPC chips, according to Monexa's revenue analysis. Samsung's focus on R&D and advanced memory solutions could also pay off as HBM demand grows. However, both companies must balance short-term profitability with long-term geopolitical alignment.

Conclusion

The U.S. is rewriting the rules of global chip manufacturing, and TSMC and Samsung are at the forefront of this transformation. While regulatory hurdles and geopolitical risks loom large, the companies' U.S. investments position them to dominate the AI and HPC markets. For investors, the path forward hinges on their ability to navigate subsidy dependencies, mitigate operational delays, and maintain technological leadership in an increasingly fragmented world.