Geopolitical Crossroads: How Putin’s Ceasefire and Trump’s WWII Claims Reshape Investment Horizons

The 80th anniversary of World War II’s end became a geopolitical chessboard in 2025, as Vladimir Putin’s symbolic ceasefire and Donald Trump’s provocative claims about U.S. wartime primacy underscored a world increasingly divided. While the three-day pause in Ukraine’s war was fleeting, the broader implications for global markets are profound. Investors must navigate a landscape where defense spending, gold, and geopolitical narratives are key drivers of risk and return.

Geopolitical Dynamics: A Fragile Pause Amid Rising Tensions

Putin’s unilateral ceasefire, announced to coincide with Russia’s Victory Day celebrations, was framed as a gesture of respect for WWII sacrifices. Yet, the move was undercut by ongoing Russian artillery strikes and Kyiv’s refusal to accept Moscow’s terms. The Red Square parade, attended by 29 world leaders including China’s Xi Jinping, symbolized a new axis of power—a Sino-Russian alliance challenging U.S. influence. Meanwhile, Trump’s proclamation emphasizing U.S. WWII contributions highlighted a stark ideological divide.

This contrast is not merely historical rhetoric; it reflects a world where geopolitical posturing directly impacts markets. While the ceasefire caused a modest dip in oil prices (), the real action lies in sectors that benefit from—or are disrupted by—rising global instability.

Defense Sector: The New Growth Engine

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reported record global defense spending of $2.7 trillion in 2024, a 5% annual increase and the steepest rise since the Cold War. This surge is fueled by the Ukraine conflict, Sino-U.S. rivalry, and NATO’s modernization push. The U.S. Global Technology and Aerospace & Defense ETF (WAR), launched in 2024, has capitalized on this trend, outperforming the S&P 500 by 15% year-to-date through April 2025 ().

The ETF’s focus on electronic warfare, AI-driven systems, and cybersecurity aligns with the Pentagon’s emphasis on modernization. Companies like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Raytheon Technologies (RTX), major holdings in WAR, benefit from multiyear contracts. However, risks remain: a sudden ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough could pressure valuations.

Gold: A Tier 1 Asset in Turbulent Times

Geopolitical volatility has sent gold prices soaring to $3,500/ounce, with central banks buying nearly 5,000 metric tons in 2024 (World Gold Council). The U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF (GOAU) has gained 22% since early 2025, as Basel III regulations classify gold as a Tier 1 asset—boosting institutional demand.

Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors, predicts $6,000/ounce by 2026, citing $2.7 trillion in global defense spending and $500 billion in annual central bank purchases. Yet retail investors hold less than 2% of their portfolios in gold, creating an opportunity for contrarian plays.

Cryptocurrencies: A Hedge Against Regulatory Uncertainty

The Ukraine conflict has accelerated interest in digital assets as a hedge against fiat volatility. Bitcoin’s price, though volatile, has climbed 40% since late 2024, driven by BlackRock’s $50 billion spot Bitcoin ETF and regulatory clarity in the U.S. U.S. Global Investors has increased Bitcoin exposure on its balance sheet and accumulated shares of HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE), a cryptocurrency mining firm.

However, risks persist: Bitcoin’s correlation with equities and interest rate hikes could limit upside. Investors should treat crypto as a small, speculative allocation within a diversified portfolio.

Risks to Consider

1. Defense Sector Concentration: ETFs like WAR are heavily exposed to aerospace and government contracts. A sudden peace deal or budget cuts could trigger sharp declines.
2. Gold’s Underperformance: While central banks are buyers, retail adoption lags. A geopolitical calm or rate hikes could stall the rally.
3. Trade Policy Uncertainty: U.S. tariffs on China and Russia risk disrupting supply chains, particularly in tech and energy.

Conclusion: Navigating a World of Divided Narratives

The interplay between Putin’s military posturing and Trump’s historical revisionism has created a geopolitical tinderbox. Investors must prioritize sectors that benefit from instability while hedging against sudden shifts.

• Defense stocks and ETFs (e.g., WAR) remain a core holding, given record spending and sustained conflict risks.
• Gold (GOAU) is a must-hold for portfolios, with central bank demand and Basel III regulations providing tailwinds.
• Crypto (Bitcoin, HIVE) offers upside potential but requires caution due to volatility.

The path forward is clear: invest in resilience. As Zelenskyy noted, “30 hours are enough for headlines, but not for confidence.” In 2025, markets reward those who prepare for a world where peace is fragile and conflict is the default.

Data Anchors:
- Global defense spending: $2.7 trillion (SIPRI 2024).
- Gold prices: $3,500/ounce (2025 high) vs. $1,800 in 2020.
- WAR ETF outperformance: +15% vs. S&P 500 (YTD April 2025).

The stakes are high, but so are the rewards for those who align their portfolios with the realities of our divided world.