GeoPark Soars 24.8% on Rejection of $9/Share Takeover Bid as Vaca Muerta Acquisition Validates Premium Valuation

Summary
• GeoPark (GPRK) surges 24.8% intraday to $8.24, defying Parex Resources’ $9/share bid rejection
• Board cites 46% production and 70% EBITDA growth by 2028 as justification for rejecting offer
• Vaca Muerta acquisition adds 60M barrels, extending reserve life to 10 years
GeoPark’s stock erupted 24.8% to $8.24 on October 30, 2025, as the board rejected Parex Resources’ $9/share takeover bid, citing undervaluation of its Vaca Muerta assets. The rejection, coupled with a 60M-barrel resource addition in Argentina, triggered a sharp rally. The stock traded between $7.84 and $8.27, reflecting renewed investor confidence in its growth narrative.

Takeover Rejection and Vaca Muerta Acquisition Drive GeoPark's 24.8% Surge
GeoPark’s board rejected Parex Resources’ $9/share bid, a 44% premium to its price at the time of the proposal, arguing it failed to value the company’s recent Vaca Muerta acquisition. The $940M all-cash offer, submitted in September, was deemed insufficient given the 60M-barrel resource addition and a 10-year reserve life extension. The board emphasized a 46% production and 70% adjusted EBITDA growth target by 2028, which Parex’s CEO explicitly dismissed by stating no interest in Argentina. This strategic divergence, combined with Parex’s 11.8% stake acquisition, intensified market speculation about a potential hostile bid, fueling the 24.8% intraday surge.

Energy Sector Volatility Amid Geopolitical and Commodity Shifts
The energy sector, led by Exxon Mobil (XOM), saw mixed performance, with XOM down 0.65% as U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers and global LNG demand shifts created uncertainty. While GeoPark’s rally was driven by corporate-specific catalysts, broader sector dynamics—such as Brazil’s Petrobras subsea contracts and Guyana’s ExxonMobil expansion—highlighted divergent regional opportunities. GeoPark’s Argentina-focused growth contrasts with peers’ focus on U.S. shale and Middle Eastern assets, underscoring its unique risk-reward profile.

Options and Technicals: Capitalizing on GeoPark’s Volatility and Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 0.0958 (bullish divergence from signal line 0.0363)
• RSI: 50.47 (neutral, avoiding overbought/oversold extremes)
• 200D MA: $7.22 (current price $8.24 above, suggesting short-term strength)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $7.13 (price $8.24 above, indicating bullish breakout potential)
GeoPark’s technicals align with its fundamentals: a bullish MACD crossover, price above key moving averages, and a 24.8% intraday surge. The 50.47 RSI suggests no immediate overbought conditions, allowing room for further gains. Two options stand out for aggressive positioning:

1. GPRK20251219C7.5 (Call Option)
• Strike: $7.50 | Expiration: 2025-12-19 | IV: 62.04% | Leverage: 7.47% | Delta: 0.6779 | Theta: -0.0008 | Gamma: 0.1839 | Turnover: 148,464
• IV (62.04%): High volatility implies potential for large price swings
• Leverage (7.47%): Amplifies gains if price rises above $7.50
• Delta (0.6779): Strong sensitivity to price movement
• Gamma (0.1839): High sensitivity to delta changes, ideal for rapid rallies
• Theta (-0.0008): Minimal time decay, preserving value until expiration
This call option offers a 214.29% price change ratio, reflecting its high leverage and alignment with GeoPark’s 24.8% surge. A 5% upside to $8.65 would yield a payoff of $1.15 per contract, making it ideal for short-term bullish bets.

2. GPRK20251219P7.5 (Put Option)
• Strike: $7.50 | Expiration: 2025-12-19 | IV: 62.79% | Leverage: 37.36% | Delta: -0.2588 | Theta: -0.0128 | Gamma: 0.2491 | Turnover: 13,849
• IV (62.79%): Suggests market anticipation of volatility
• Leverage (37.36%): High reward if price drops below $7.50
• Delta (-0.2588): Moderate sensitivity to downside risk
• Gamma (0.2491): Strong delta responsiveness, ideal for short-term corrections
• Theta (-0.0128): Higher time decay, but justified by high gamma
This put option provides a -72.50% price change ratio, offering downside protection if the stock retraces to key support levels. A 5% downside to $7.83 would yield a $0.33 payoff, balancing risk and reward.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls should prioritize GPRK20251219C7.5 for a 214.29% upside potential, while hedgers may use GPRK20251219P7.5 to cap downside risk. Monitor the 200D MA ($7.22) and 52W high ($11.72) for trend confirmation.

Backtest GeoPark Stock Performance
I tried to build the event list by screening every trading-day change in GeoPark (GPRK.N) for rises of ≥ 25 % between 1 Jan 2022 and 30 Oct 2025; unfortunately the data show no days that actually reached or exceeded that threshold. Because the resulting event-date list is empty, the event-backtest engine threw an internal error when it attempted to calculate post-event statistics.How would you like to proceed?1. Lower the surge threshold (e.g., 20 % or 15 %) and run the event study again. 2. Extend the look-back window further into the past (before 2022). 3. Analyse a different stock or a basket of peers. 4. Stop here.Let me know which option you prefer (or propose another), and I’ll run the appropriate analysis.

GeoPark’s 24.8% Rally Validates Vaca Muerta Strategy—Watch 200D MA and 52W High for Next Move
GeoPark’s 24.8% surge validates its Vaca Muerta acquisition as a catalyst for long-term value, but short-term volatility remains tied to Parex’s next move. The 200D MA at $7.22 and 52W high of $11.72 are critical levels to watch. If the stock holds above $7.22, the bullish case strengthens; a breakdown could trigger a retest of the 5.96–5.98 support. Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil (XOM) fell 0.65%, underscoring sector-wide uncertainty. Investors should prioritize GPRK20251219C7.5 for aggressive upside or GPRK20251219P7.5 for hedging. Act now: Position for a potential 214.29% payoff on the call or secure downside protection with the put.