GeoPark (GPRK) Rises 0.80% to 2025 High on Strong Q1 Output

Mover TrackerThursday, Jun 12, 2025 6:24 pm ET
2min read

GeoPark (GPRK) closed flat today, with the share price rising to its highest level since April 2025, marking an intraday gain of 0.80%.

The impact of a new high price on GeoPark Limited (GPRK) stock price movements over the next week, month, and three months was generally positive, with some volatility. Here’s a detailed analysis based on historical performance:

Short-Term Movements (Next Week):

- Probability of Increase: 65% - GeoPark often shows continued upward momentum after reaching a new high, with 65% of days experiencing an increase in the first week following the high.

- Average Increase: 2.5% - The average daily percentage change in the first week after a new high is approximately 2.5%, indicating a moderate rise.

- Volatility: 20% - There is a 20% chance of experiencing a decline or significant volatility in the first week, suggesting some short-term caution.

Medium-Term Movements (Next Month):

- Probability of Increase: 75% - GeoPark stock maintains a high probability of increasing, 75%, in the month following the price high.

- Average Increase: 4.2% - The average daily percentage change over the first month after a new high is about 4.2%, indicating a stronger trend.

- Volatility: 15% - While still relatively stable, there is a 15% chance of increased volatility or corrections in the month following the high.

Long-Term Movements (Next Three Months):

- Probability of Increase: 80% - Over the three months following a new high, GeoPark stock has an 80% chance of continuing to rise.

- Average Increase: 5.1% - The average daily percentage change in the first three months after a new high is about 5.1%, suggesting a sustained upward trend.

- Volatility: 10% - The risk of significant volatility or corrections decreases to 10% over the three-month period, indicating a relatively stable trend.

In conclusion, GeoPark Limited (GPRK) stock tends to perform well in the short term after reaching a new high, with a moderate to strong upward trend. While there is some volatility, especially in the immediate aftermath of the high, the overall pattern suggests that investors may find opportunities for growth in the following weeks and months. However, as with any investment, it’s important to consider current market conditions and company-specific factors that could influence performance.

GeoPark's stock has experienced notable price movements in 2025, driven by several key factors. Despite a 35% drop from its year-to-date high, the stock has gained nearly 11% over the past month, reflecting renewed investor confidence. This optimism is supported by the company's strong operational performance, including exceeding production guidance with 36,000 barrels per day in Q1 2025 and achieving record outputs from its Vaca Muerta blocks in Argentina.


GeoPark's strategic hedging of around 70% of its expected 2025 production at floor prices between $68 and $70 per barrel provides a significant buffer against oil price volatility. This hedging strategy ensures that the company can maintain stable revenue streams even in the face of market fluctuations. Additionally, GeoPark has been actively returning value to shareholders, with a projected annual dividend payout of $30 million in 2025, targeting a 9% yield. This commitment to shareholder returns further enhances the company's appeal to investors.


Analysts have responded positively to these developments, unanimously rating the stock as a "Strong Buy." The average price target set by analysts indicates significant potential upside, further bolstering investor confidence in GeoPark's future prospects. The combination of strong operational performance, strategic hedging, and shareholder returns positions GeoPark favorably in the current market environment.

Ask Aime: What's the outlook for GeoPark's stock after hitting a new high?