GeoPark’s 2026 Production Targets, Shareholder Plan, and Frontera Deal Certainty Clash in Q4 Earnings Call

Date of Call: Feb 26, 2026

Guidance:

• 2026 production target: 44,000-46,000 BOE per day.
• 2026 Adjusted EBITDA target: $490 million-$520 million.
• 2026 lifting cost guidance: $13-$15 per barrel.
• 2026 G&A guidance: $4 per barrel.
• Argentina Vaca Muerta production expected to reach 5,000-6,000 BOE per day by end of 2026.

Business Commentary:

Production Performance:

• GeoPark Limited achieved a production average of 28,233 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the full year 2025, exceeding the upper end of their guidance.
• This was driven by stable production in Colombia, particularly in the Llanos 34 and CPO-5 areas, and successful drilling activities in Llanos 123.

Financial Results and Cost Management:

• The company reported an Adjusted EBITDA of $277 million, in line with their guidance range, despite lower realized oil prices.
• Operating costs averaged $13.4 per barrel, with G&A at $4.8 per barrel, achieving structural cash savings of $32 million.
• The cost efficiency was attributed to operational discipline and strategic cost-saving initiatives.

Argentina's Vaca Muerta Development:

• Production in Argentina's Vaca Muerta began ahead of schedule, with plans to reach a plateau of 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2028.
• This was supported by the acquisition of high-quality blocks and ongoing development efforts.

Strategic Acquisitions and Growth:

• The acquisition of Frontera Energy’s Colombian upstream assets was announced, expected to double GeoPark’s reserve base and increase production to approximately 40,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
• This strategic move is aimed at enhancing scale, diversification, and operating leverage.

Risk Management and Hedging:

• Over 84% of GeoPark's 2026 production is hedged through three-way collars, providing cash flow protection.
• This strategy is part of maintaining a strong balance sheet and financial discipline, preparing for future investments in Vaca Muerta.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• "2025 marked a turning point for GeoPark... We strengthened our foundation... We delivered or exceeded our full-year guidance across all key metrics... Our portfolio reset is well underway... We have entered 2026 with momentum." "Very, very pleased with of those major milestones." "We are extremely pleased with our entry and returning to Argentina... Very, very exciting."

Q&A:

• Question from Alejandro Demichelis (Jefferies): Can you give an indication of how costs are expected to develop for the whole year? Also, comment on the competing offer for Frontera and recent discussions.
  Response: Costs for 2026 are expected to be in the $13-$15 per barrel range for lifting, with G&A around $4 per barrel. The Frontera acquisition is transformational; GeoPark is fully committed and progressing, with recent antitrust approval in Colombia. The new Parex offer demonstrates the deal's soundness and accretion, and the board will assess all options for long-term shareholder value.

• Question from Stephane Foucaud (Auctus Advisors): What are the value steps until closing the Frontera deal? Is there a conflict of interest with Parex's director nomination? What is the current production status in Argentina?
  Response: It is up to Frontera to assess the new Parex offer; GeoPark's arrangement agreement is in place and will be diligently pursued. There is a conflict of interest with Parex's nomination, which is seen as a deliberate, hostile strategy. In Argentina, production is rising, with drilling about to start; the company expects to reach 5,000-6,000 BOE per day by year-end.

• Question from Oriana Kovalt (Balance Capital): What is the status of negotiations with the Llanos partner regarding the 2026 work program, and are there any expected changes?
  Response: Most partners have agreed to the work programs and budgets supporting guidance. With Llanos 34, 21 workovers are approved, and 14 wells are technically approved though the partner has only approved 8. GeoPark will continue constructive dialogue; if an agreement isn't reached, it has optionality to redirect the rig to other areas.

• Question from Eduardo Muniz (Santander): If the Frontera deal does not close, how does that change the Colombia growth outlook? Also, provide an update on the polymer injection project in Llanos 34.
  Response: The board will assess all options within a framework of financial discipline and shareholder best interest. The polymer flood project in Llanos 34 is progressing well operationally; results are expected in the second half of 2026. The expected recovery factor is between 3-7% (optimistic), with an average expectation around 5%.

• Question from Isabella Pacheco (Bank of America): When does the limited duration shareholders rights plan expire, and is the board discussing its renewal?
  Response: The shareholders rights plan expires on June 3. The board will discuss its renewal in due time and communicate its decision promptly to the market.

• Question from Vicente Falanga (Bradesco): Have you seen any impacts on your business from the formalization of the Venezuelan market?
  Response: The primary impact is a widening commercial discount for the Vasconia benchmark (now $7-$8 vs. $3-$4 previously), driven by new Venezuelan supply and seasonal low demand. This is viewed as temporary, with stabilization expected. GeoPark is also evaluating opportunities in Venezuela's opening market for operating capabilities.

Contradiction Point 1

Shareholder Rights Plan Expiry and Renewal

The timeline for the rights plan's expiration and the board's stance on renewal are inconsistent.

Isabella Pacheco (Bank of America) - Isabella Pacheco (Bank of America)

2025Q4: The rights plan expires on June 3, 2026. The board will discuss its renewal in due course and communicate decisions promptly. - Felipe Bayón(CEO)

What is the upcoming expiration date of the limited duration shareholder rights plan, and is the board considering its renewal? - Alejandro Anibal Demichelis (Jefferies LLC)

2025Q3: The poison pill facilitates this process, making it sensible to keep in place. - Felipe Bayon Pardo(CEO), Jaime Caballero Uribe(CFO)

Contradiction Point 2

Production Target Outlook for 2026

The stated production target for 2026 appears to have shifted significantly.

Stephane Foucaud (Auctus Advisors) - Stephane Foucaud (Auctus Advisors)

2025Q4: Target exit rate for 2026: 5,000-6,000 BOE/day. - Felipe Bayón(CEO), Martín Terrado(CFO)

What are the key value steps remaining until closing for Frontera, could break fees or other measures prevent the deal with Parex, is there a conflict of interest in Parex's director nominations, and what is the current production status in Argentina? - Joaquin Robet (Balanz Capital)

2025Q3: The plan is to reach 20,000 BOE/day using one rig starting by end of next year... - Rodolfo Terrado(COO)

Contradiction Point 3

Polymer Injection Project Timeline

Contradiction on the expected start date of the polymer injection project.

What were Eduardo Muniz's key comments regarding Santander's earnings performance? - Eduardo Muniz (Santander)

2025Q4: Project started in December 2025 with 2 initial wells; 2 more to be added in April. - Rodrigo Dalle Fiore(Chief Exploration & Development Officer), Jaime Caballero(CFO)

If the Frontera deal does not close, how does that change your Colombia growth outlook, and can you provide an update on the polymer injection project in Llanos 34 regarding production impact and 2026 output? - Vicente Falanga (Bradesco)

2025Q2: Start-up scheduled for December 2025. - Felipe Bayon Pardo(CEO), Rodrigo Dalle Fiore(Chief Exploration & Development Officer)

Contradiction Point 4

Strategic Focus on Argentina

Contradiction on the priority and strategic emphasis given to Argentina versus Colombia.

Alejandro Demichelis (Jefferies) - Alejandro Demichelis (Jefferies)

2025Q4: The acquisition of Frontera’s Colombian assets is transformational... GeoPark believes it is the strongest strategic fit for Frontera’s assets. - Felipe Bayon(CEO)

Could you provide an update on the expected annual cost range and the current status of the Frontera offer, including any recent developments? - Anne Jean Milne (BofA Securities)

2025Q2: Colombia is the core operational focus; Brazil (post-Manati divestment) is being assessed but is not a priority. Argentina’s Vaca Muerta is a key unconventional target. - Felipe Bayon Pardo(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Production Growth Outlook and Acquisition Deal Certainty

Contradiction on the certainty and timeline of a major acquisition impacting growth forecasts.

What are your thoughts on Q4 earnings performance? - Alejandro Demichelis (Jefferies)

2025Q4: The acquisition of Frontera’s Colombian assets is transformational, doubling reserves and expected to boost production to ~40k BOE/day net. ... The arrangement agreement is in place, and GeoPark is diligently pursuing closure. - Felipe Bayón(CEO)

Can you provide an update on the expected annual cost range and discuss the current situation with the Frontera offer, including any recent developments or competing bids? - Alejandro Anibal Demichelis (Jefferies)

2025Q1: The acquisition is pending regulatory approvals by May 13, 2025. ... The agreement remains fully in place unless terminated. - Andres Ocampo(CEO)