GEO Group Analyst Maintains Buy Rating, Lowers Price Target to $45.00

GEO Group (GEO) received a "Buy" rating from Jones Trading analyst Jason Weaver, with a lower price target of $45.00, a 10% decrease from the previous target of $50.00. Weaver's decision follows previous analyst ratings, with Wedbush's Jay McCanless reiterating an "Outperform" rating and Jones Trading's Matthew Erdner maintaining a "Buy" rating with a lower price target. The GEO Group specializes in detention facilities and community reentry centers.

GEO Group (GEO) has seen a recent adjustment in analyst price targets, with Jones Trading analyst Jason Weaver lowering his target to $45.00, a 10% decrease from the previous $50.00 target. This adjustment follows a series of recent analyst ratings, including Wedbush's Jay McCanless reiterating an "Outperform" rating and Jones Trading's Matthew Erdner maintaining a "Buy" rating with a lower price target.

The GEO Group specializes in detention facilities and community reentry centers, operating in four segments: U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, Reentry Services, and International Services. The company's market capitalization exceeds industry standards, reflecting its significant scale and robust market position. Recent financial performance highlights a revenue growth rate of 4.77% as of June 30, 2025, and a net margin of 4.58%, demonstrating strong profitability and effective cost control.

Institutional investors have shown significant interest in GEO, with 140 adding shares to their portfolios and 158 decreasing their positions in the most recent quarter. The largest recent moves include Holocene Advisors, LP adding 2,376,668 shares and Wellington Management Group LLP adding 1,976,544 shares. Insider trading activity has also been notable, with 3 sales in the past 6 months, none of which were purchases.

GEO Group is set to release its quarterly earnings report on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. Analysts anticipate an EPS of $0.16, with the market awaiting news of potential earnings surprises and upbeat guidance. Historical earnings performance shows that the company has met or exceeded estimates in recent quarters, with the most recent quarter's EPS of $0.23 leading to a 4.0% price increase.

The company's debt management strategy is prudent, with a below-average debt-to-equity ratio of 1.29. This balanced approach to debt management aligns with the company's strong financial performance, as evidenced by its impressive ROE of 2.14% and ROA of 0.8%.

References:
[1] https://www.quiverquant.com/news/New+Analyst+Forecast%3A+%24GEO+Given+%2445.0+Price+Target
[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/northland-securities-reiterates-buy-rating-021900963.html
[3] https://www.benzinga.com/insights/earnings/25/08/47014236/insights-ahead-geo-groups-quarterly-earnings