Genmab Shares Drop 2.72% as Bearish Candlestick and Technical Indicators Signal Downward Momentum Near Key Supports

Candlestick Theory

Genmab (GMAB) has experienced a 2.72% decline in the most recent session, forming a bearish candlestick with a long lower shadow, suggesting potential rejection of lower levels. Key support levels appear at $31.62 (the 2025-10-09 low) and $30.67 (the 2025-09-30 close), while resistance is clustered near $32.93 (2025-10-08 high). A bearish engulfing pattern is visible around $32.74–$32.64 (2025-10-07–08), indicating short-term bearish momentum. However, the absence of strong bullish reversal patterns above $32.74 suggests further downward pressure unless buyers reassert control at key supports.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (DMA) currently resides above the 200-DMA, suggesting a short-term bullish bias, but the 100-DMA has crossed below the 200-DMA, indicating a weakening trend. The recent price action, which closed below the 50-DMA, signals potential bearish divergence. A break below $31.85 (the 2025-10-09 close) could trigger a test of the 200-DMA at $31.00, while a sustained recovery above $33.31 (the 2025-10-06 close) might reinvigorate bullish sentiment. The confluence of the 50-DMA and 100-DMA near $32.20 could act as a critical pivot point.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has contracted from a positive to a negative value, reflecting waning bullish momentum. The KDJ indicator shows the %K line dipping below the %D line, confirming bearish exhaustion. While the RSI (discussed separately) is approaching oversold territory, the KDJ’s oversold reading (<30) suggests a potential short-term bounce. However, the MACD’s bearish crossover and negative divergence with price (falling prices amid rising MACD) imply caution about overbought/oversold signals.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened from a narrow contraction in early October, reflecting increased volatility. The recent close at $31.85 sits near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions. Historically, prices have rebounded from the lower band during periods of high volume, but this requires confirmation. The upper band at $33.63 (2025-10-03 high) remains a critical resistance level, with a potential breakout likely to trigger a volatility expansion phase.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has spiked during recent declines, with the 2025-10-09 session recording 2.7 million shares traded—a 30% increase from the 20-day average. This supports the bearish narrative, as declining prices on rising volume validate distribution. Conversely, volume during the 2025-10-03 rally to $33.56 was robust (4.7 million shares), suggesting temporary buying interest. However, the lack of follow-through volume during subsequent bounces raises concerns about sustainability.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI has dipped to 29, entering oversold territory, which may prompt short-term buying. However, this reading must be interpreted cautiously, as RSI can remain oversold in strong downtrends. Historical context shows the RSI frequently trading between 30–50 since late September, indicating a bearish bias. A close above $32.74 could push RSI above 40, signaling potential stabilization, but a break below 25 might trigger a deeper decline toward $30.67.

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 2024-10–2025-03 rally (low: $18.66, high: $24.05), the 38.2% retracement level aligns with $31.85 (current price), suggesting a potential support zone. The 50% level at $31.20 and 61.8% at $30.67 (coinciding with the 2025-09-30 close) could offer further confluence. A breakdown below $30.67 would target the $29.33 (2025-09-29 close) level, while a retest of $32.74 could validate the $33.31 (2025-10-06 close) as a near-term ceiling.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of RSI overbought signals (70 threshold) from 2022 to 2025 reveals a mixed performance profile. While the 3-day win rate stands at 52.73%, indicating slight edge in short-term trades, the 10-day and 30-day win rates (40.00% and 43.64%, respectively) suggest diminishing returns. The maximum 30-day return of 0.42% underscores the limitations of relying solely on RSI for GMAB, particularly in a context of prolonged consolidation and bearish momentum. This aligns with the current technical landscape, where RSI’s oversold reading lacks corroborative strength from MACD and moving averages, highlighting the need for multi-indicator confluence.