Genmab Rises 0.31% Amid Bearish Harami Pattern and Key Support Levels

Candlestick Theory

Genmab (GMAB) has shown a modest 0.31% gain in the most recent session, closing at $32.74. The price action over the past month reveals key support levels around $30.67 (October 30, 2025) and $28.00 (early September 2025), with resistance forming near $33.63 (October 6, 2025). A notable bearish harami pattern emerged on October 1–2, 2025, where a large bullish candle (October 1) was followed by a smaller bearish candle (October 2) contained within its range. This pattern suggests potential exhaustion of upward momentum, though the subsequent rally above $32.50 has partially negated its bearish signal. Conversely, a bullish engulfing pattern on September 30–October 1, 2025, validated a short-term rebound, aligning with the 50-day moving average as a dynamic support.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (currently around $30.90) has acted as a critical support line, with the price testing it twice in late September and early October 2025. The 100-day (approx. $28.50) and 200-day (approx. $23.00) averages remain significantly lower, indicating a long-term bullish trend. However, the 200-day crossover event on April 2025 (price: $18.81) marked a prior support-turned-resistance, which Genmab has yet to decisively break through. The convergence of the 50-day and 100-day averages near $30.00 suggests a potential consolidation phase, with a bullish breakout likely requiring a close above $33.63 to align with the 50-day MA.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has shown a narrowing divergence since mid-October 2025, reflecting waning momentum in the recent rally. The MACD line (12-period) crossed below the signal line (26-period) on October 7, 2025, signaling a bearish crossover that coincided with the 2.01% decline. Meanwhile, the KDJ stochastic oscillator reached overbought territory (K: 85, D: 78) on October 3, 2025, following a 4.48% surge, suggesting a potential pullback. However, the subsequent failure to close below the 20-level (oversold threshold) indicates resilience in the short-term trend. Divergence between the RSI and KDJ on October 7–8, 2025, highlights mixed signals, with RSI dipping below 50 while the stochastic oscillator remained in neutral territory.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly since late September 2025, reflecting heightened volatility. On October 3, 2025, the price touched the upper band amid a 4.48% surge, a classic overbought signal. The subsequent pullback to the mid-band by October 7, 2025, suggests a return to equilibrium. The 20-day volatility (ATR) stands at $1.10, up from $0.80 in early September, aligning with the bearish harami pattern’s formation. A break below the lower band (currently $29.50) would confirm a shift in trend, while a retest of the upper band ($33.63) could trigger renewed short-term optimism.

Volume-Price Relationship

Volume has been inconsistent in validating price movements. The October 3, 2025, 4.48% rally was accompanied by elevated volume (4.16M shares), reinforcing its legitimacy. However, the October 7–8 pullback occurred on mixed volume, with the 2.01% decline on October 7 supported by 4.72M shares but the 0.31% rebound on October 8 trading only 1.57M shares. This weak volume response during the rebound suggests limited conviction in the bullish case. Conversely, the September 30–October 1 rally (4.57% gain) was volume-confirmed, with 5.65M shares traded, indicating stronger follow-through demand.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-period RSI has oscillated between 45 and 65 over the past month, avoiding overbought (>70) or oversold (<30) extremes. A brief spike to 68 on October 3, 2025, failed to breach the 70 threshold, suggesting a lack of aggressive buying pressure. The RSI’s failure to exceed prior highs during the October 3 rally, despite the 4.48% gain, points to a potential bearish divergence. Conversely, the RSI’s 45 reading on October 7, 2025, aligns with the stochastic oscillator’s oversold signal, hinting at a possible short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the March–April 2025 downtrend (high: $24.05, low: $18.81) suggest critical support/resistance zones. The 38.2% retracement level ($21.80) has held as a dynamic support since June 2025, while the 61.8% level ($23.40) was tested in late September 2025. The current price of $32.74 is above the 100% extension level ($25.24), indicating a potential target for further consolidation or a reversal. A breakdown below the 50% retracement level ($21.43) would validate a return to the prior downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy highlights the reliability of bearish harami patterns in predicting downward movement, with historical returns averaging -0.04% post-event. Applying this to Genmab’s October 1–2, 2025, pattern, the subsequent 2.07% decline on October 5, 2025, aligns with the expected bearish bias. However, the rally back above $32.50 by October 8, 2025, suggests the pattern’s impact may be mitigated by stronger macroeconomic factors or sector-specific news. Integrating this with the current analysis, the bearish harami’s signal is partially validated but requires additional confirmation via a break below $30.67 (key support) to solidify the short-term bear case.