Genmab (GMAB) Drops 4.73% on Bearish Technical Signals After 8.74% Two-Day Decline

Genmab (GMAB) has experienced a sharp decline of 4.73% in the most recent session, marking two consecutive days of losses with a cumulative drop of 8.74%. This rapid deterioration in price action warrants a detailed technical analysis to assess short-term and medium-term dynamics. Below is a structured evaluation across multiple analytical frameworks.

Candlestick Theory

Recent candlestick patterns for Genmab suggest bearish momentum.

The two-day bearish engulfing pattern, where lower shadows have receded and bodies have expanded downward, indicates strong selling pressure. Key support levels can be identified at the 30.35–30.84 range (a prior consolidation zone) and 29.33–29.87 (a previous trough). Resistance remains fragile near 31.5–32.0, where prior failures to hold above these levels have created psychological barriers. The breakdown below the 30.84 support level increases the likelihood of testing the next significant support at 28.84, with a potential continuation of the downtrend if this level fails.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term moving averages (50-day and 100-day) have crossed below long-term averages (200-day), forming a death cross configuration that historically signals bearish bias. As of the latest data, the 50-day MA is positioned at approximately 31.20, while the 200-day MA resides near 31.60. The price’s current level (32.25–33.85 range) suggests it has diverged from its 50-day MA, indicating a weakening trend. However, the 200-day MA remains above the 100-day MA, suggesting the long-term bearish bias is intact but not yet accelerated. A sustained close below the 50-day MA would confirm a deeper bearish phase.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned negative, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish crossover. This aligns with the RSI’s descent into oversold territory (<30), suggesting potential for a short-term rebound. However, the KDJ indicator shows a bearish divergence: while the price continues to make lower lows, the %K line has not reached oversold levels, hinting at lingering bearish momentum. This dissonance between MACD/RSI and KDJ signals caution—overbought conditions may trigger a bounce, but the broader trend remains vulnerable to further declines.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded as the Bollinger Bands have widened in recent weeks, reflecting heightened uncertainty. The price’s position near the lower band (30.88–31.14) suggests oversold conditions, but this does not guarantee a reversal. A break below the lower band could trigger a volatility contraction phase, often preceding sharp moves. Conversely, a rebound to the upper band (33.9–34.2) would require a sustained rally to re-enter overbought territory, which is unlikely without a catalyst.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged during the recent selloff, with the two-day average volume (6249263 shares) exceeding prior averages by 30–40%. This confirms the validity of the downward move, as increased participation by sellers reinforces bearish control. However, the volume profile lacks a clear peak, which may suggest that the selloff is still in its early phase rather than a climax. A drop in volume during potential rebounds could indicate waning bearish conviction.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI has dipped below 30, entering oversold territory, which typically signals a potential reversal. However, given the stock’s recent trajectory, this reading may reflect exhaustion rather than a turning point. A failure to close above 30 within the next few sessions could extend the oversold condition, increasing the risk of a false breakout. Divergence between RSI and price action (e.g., RSI forming higher lows while price makes lower lows) would strengthen the case for a short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 2025-04-10 low (17.575) to the 2026-01-14 high (35.43) reveals key retracement levels. The current price (30.88–32.25) is near the 50% retracement level (26.50), but the recent breakdown suggests the stock is testing the 61.8% level (24.45). A close below this level would validate a deeper correction toward the 78.6% level (20.60). Conversely, a rebound above 33.85 (the 38.2% level) could rekindle bullish sentiment, though this remains improbable without a catalyst.

The confluence of bearish signals—death cross, bearish engulfing patterns, oversold RSI, and divergent KDJ—strongly suggests continued downward pressure in the near term. However, the oversold RSI and Bollinger Bands’ lower-bound proximity imply a probabilistic short-term bounce, particularly if volume subsides during any rebounds. Traders should monitor the 30.35–30.84 support zone for potential entry points, but risk-reward profiles remain skewed to the downside until the 50-day MA (31.20) is decisively reclaimed. Divergences between momentum indicators and price action highlight the need for caution, as false breakouts or extended corrections remain possible without a shift in broader market sentiment.