Genius Sports' Revenue Rises, Earnings Fall: Analysts Still Target $15 Upside

Experts Predict Genius Sports Could Reach $15 Despite Earnings Miss, as Analysts Highlight Outperform Rating

Genius Sports Ltd (NYSE:GENI), a provider of sports data and integrity services, is set to report its Q3 2025 earnings on November 4, 2025, according to a Yahoo Finance preview, with analysts forecasting a mixed performance. While revenue is expected to rise to $156.27 million for the quarter and $645.12 million for the full year, earnings per share are projected to remain negative at $-0.18 for 2025. This follows a challenging previous quarter, where the company reported a $-0.21 earnings per share result—far below the $-0.01 consensus—despite beating revenue estimates by 0.20%.

The firm's financial trajectory has shown divergent trends. Revenue estimates for 2025 have increased by $24.29 million over 90 days, reflecting growing demand for its sports data solutions. However, earnings expectations have deteriorated, with 2025 forecasts dropping by 170 basis points to $-0.18 per share. Analysts attribute this to ongoing cost pressures and operational challenges.

Despite the earnings outlook, brokerages remain cautiously optimistic. The average one-year price target stands at $15.00, implying a 33.21% upside from Genius Sports' current price of $11.26. This optimism is bolstered by a consensus "Outperform" rating from 19 brokerage firms, with an average recommendation score of 1.8 on a 1–5 scale, the preview notes. The GF Value model, however, suggests a more cautious view, estimating a fair value of $10.45, which implies a 7.19% downside from the current price, the preview adds.

The stock's volatility highlights the tug-of-war between revenue growth and profitability concerns. In the June 2025 quarter, Genius Sports' shares fell 4.50% post-earnings despite outperforming revenue expectations. Analysts note that while the company's revenue trajectory is robust, its ability to translate this into consistent profitability remains a key hurdle.

Looking ahead, the firm faces a critical test in its upcoming Q3 report. If it can narrow its earnings deficit or demonstrate progress in cost management, the stock could see renewed investor interest. Conversely, a continued earnings drag could pressure the share price, particularly as the GF Value model suggests undervaluation relative to analyst targets.

Brokerage recommendations remain split between short-term optimism and long-term caution. While 19 firms back Genius Sports with an average "Outperform" rating, the disparity between analyst price targets and intrinsic value metrics underscores the need for careful risk assessment.