Generic Ozempic Drugs Are About to Flood the Market as Key Patent Expires

Patents on semaglutide, the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy, are beginning to expire in key markets like Canada, India, China, and Brazil. This development opens the door for multiple generic manufacturers to produce lower-cost versions of the drug, potentially shaking up the obesity drug market. Analysts say this could challenge Novo Nordisk’s dominance in the GLP-1 weight-loss category and reshape competitive dynamics.

The expiration of these patents in Canada was the first to occur, with domestic generic production and sales now permitted. As a result, prices could drop significantly, making the medication more affordable for patients who previously struggled with access. In India, several generic manufacturers have already filed for approval, and companies like Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories are preparing for rapid market entry once regulatory hurdles are cleared.

In China, at least 10 companies have filed for semaglutide copycat approvals, and more are in late-stage development. The availability of generics could trigger government procurement processes that historically have slashed drug prices by as much as 90% in some cases. With the global obesity epidemic continuing to grow, the prospect of more affordable treatments is expected to expand access to millions of patients who previously could not afford the branded versions.

Why Is the Patent Expiration Happening Now?

The patent on semaglutide in Canada lapsed this month due to missed maintenance fees and the expiration of data exclusivity. This marks a turning point for the global market, as other countries like India and China are expected to follow similar paths. Novo Nordisk has acknowledged that its Canadian patent lapse was intentional, part of a global strategy influenced by price controls and regulatory pressures. The company has also lowered prices in several markets to stay competitive and improve patient access.

The expiration of these patents is not an isolated event. It is part of a broader trend where patent protections for blockbuster drugs are ending in multiple regions. This allows generic manufacturers to enter the market and offer lower-cost alternatives, which could significantly impact Novo Nordisk’s revenue streams. Analysts at Nomura estimate the global generic market for semaglutide could reach $8 billion annually by 2030.

How Will the Market Respond?

The entry of generic semaglutide into the market is expected to trigger a price war, with some analysts predicting prices could fall to as low as $15 per month in certain countries. This is likely to affect Novo Nordisk’s sales and market share, especially as the company faces competition from both generic manufacturers and branded alternatives like Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro. Novo Nordisk’s CEO, Mike Doustdar, has acknowledged the challenge and stated the company will continue to innovate and expand its product pipeline to maintain its edge.

The impact of generic competition will be most pronounced in developing markets, where affordability is a key issue. In India, for example, the price of Wegovy has already dropped by 37% in response to the anticipated generic entry. This shift is expected to increase the number of patients who can afford and access the drug, further expanding the market for obesity treatments. However, it also raises concerns about the potential for counterfeit drugs and quality control issues.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

The availability of generic semaglutide in the U.S. and UK is not expected until 2031 and 2035, respectively, due to extended patent protections. However, the market dynamics in other countries may serve as a precursor to what will happen in these larger markets. Analysts are watching how Novo Nordisk adapts to the changing landscape, particularly in terms of pricing, distribution, and new product launches. The company has already launched its first oral version of Wegovy and is working on newer formulations that may offer improved efficacy and convenience.

Investors and analysts are also paying close attention to how Novo Nordisk competes with other GLP-1 drugs in the market. Eli Lilly’s Zepbound has already gained traction in several countries and is expected to outperform Wegovy in the U.S. in 2025. The availability of generic versions may further erode Novo Nordisk’s market share, especially if the price difference becomes significant. This could also impact the company’s research and development strategies, as it may need to invest more in next-generation therapies to maintain its competitive edge.

In addition, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has requested the removal of suicide risk warnings from GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, including Wegovy and Zepbound, after a review found no increased risk of suicidal ideation. This development could further boost the appeal of these drugs and increase their adoption among patients and healthcare providers. However, the FDA has also raised concerns about the safety of compounded versions of these drugs, which are not subject to the same regulatory standards as branded or generic products.

The entry of generic semaglutide into the market is expected to have broader implications for public health and healthcare systems. As demand for obesity treatments continues to rise, governments and insurers will need to determine how to cover and manage the use of these drugs. The availability of lower-cost options could help expand access and reduce the financial burden on patients, but it also raises questions about how to ensure the safety and quality of generic medications. Regulators will play a key role in monitoring the market and ensuring that patients receive effective and safe treatments.