Gemini Takes Lead in 2025 AI Race as Bets Shift Amid Turbulent Market Dynamics

More than half of Kalshi traders now bet on Gemini to win the AI race. As of the latest data from the prediction market, 57% of users are placing their bets on Google’s Gemini to emerge as the leading artificial intelligence text model by the end of 2025. This marks a significant increase from 48.1% the previous day, while OpenAI’s ChatGPT has seen its odds fall to 20% from 25.4%, and xAI’s Grok has dropped to 15% from 18.8%. The prediction will be resolved on December 31, with the outcome verified by the LM Arena Leaderboard. To date, $7.4 million in trading volume has been recorded for this particular market [1].

Google’s Gemini has gained momentum following a series of updates, including the introduction of a storybook mode, an improved reasoning model, and temporary chat functionality that does not save user history. In contrast, OpenAI’s recent release of ChatGPT-5 has been met with mixed reactions. The launch was criticized by users, prompting CEO Sam Altman to defend the product publicly on X. These developments have contributed to the shifting odds in the market. Meanwhile, xAI’s Grok has also faced challenges, including accusations of political bias and an incident where the model reportedly praised Adolf Hitler, leading to the removal of certain posts [1].

The competition among large language models is intensifying, particularly in the domain of internet search. Recent market moves highlight this trend, including an unsolicited $34.5 billion cash offer from AI company Perplexity to purchase Google’s Chrome browser. OpenAI has also reportedly shown interest in acquiring the browser, which dominates the market share. In China, DeepSeek, an AI firm, has released a new advanced model, Prover 2, which demonstrates capabilities in mathematics. However, regulatory challenges may affect the trajectory of AI development. In October 2024, G7 anti-trust authorities signaled potential actions to preserve competition in the AI sector, and both Google and Meta are currently facing antitrust lawsuits that could influence their ability to innovate and compete [1].

The current betting trends on Kalshi reflect the dynamic landscape of the AI industry, where performance, updates, and user perception play critical roles. While Gemini has taken a commanding lead, the market remains fluid, with ChatGPT and Grok still holding considerable support. The ongoing race for dominance among AI models is likely to be influenced by further technological advancements, user feedback, and regulatory developments. Given the rapid pace of innovation, the final outcome of this prediction market could shift significantly as the year progresses [1].

Source: [1] Kalshi Bettors Predict Gemini Will Be Top AI Model of 2025 (https://cointelegraph.com/news/57-percent-kalshi-bettors-predict-gemini-top-ai-text-model-2025)