Gemini's EU Regulatory Leap Fuels $30 Price Target Optimism

Gemini Space Station Inc. (NASDAQ: GEMI) has emerged as a focal point for Wall Street analysts, who have set a median price target of $30 for the stock, reflecting optimism around its crypto rewards card adoption and regulatory expansion in Europe. With 11 analysts issuing ratings since its September IPO, the stock carries a "Moderate Buy" consensus, underpinned by six "Buy" and five "Hold" recommendations. The price targets span $25 to $42, averaging $31.64-a 23.34% premium to its current price of $25.65.

The surge in analyst confidence coincides with Gemini's rapid user growth, particularly for its crypto rewards credit card. Sign-ups for the card have tripled year-over-year, jumping from 8,000 in 2024 to 31,000 by August 2025. Analysts at Mizuho Securities highlight a "flywheel effect," noting that half of cardholders have become active traders on Gemini's platform, driving recurring engagement. Cantor Fitzgerald reported 45,000 new card sign-ups in July and August alone, while the product's fee-free structure and customizable crypto rewards have positioned it as a key differentiator in the retail crypto market.

Regulatory progress in Europe further bolsters the company's growth narrative. In August, Gemini secured a Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) license from Malta's Financial Services Authority, enabling it to offer staking, derivatives, and tokenized equity services across 30+ European jurisdictions. This follows a MiFID II license in May, which allowed derivatives trading across the EU. The dual licensing positions Gemini as one of the few fully compliant U.S.-based exchanges in the region, with analysts noting the move could unlock "cross-selling potential" as crypto adoption expands.

Despite the positive momentum, challenges remain. The company reported a $282.5 million net loss in H1 2025, widening from $41.4 million in the prior year, as it invested heavily in regulatory infrastructure and product development. KBW analysts caution that profitability may elude Gemini through the forecast period, despite its superior growth profile relative to peers. The stock, which debuted at $28 before peaking at $46 and retreating to a post-IPO low of $22.25, trades near $24, trailing larger crypto rivals like Coinbase and MicroStrategy.

Analysts remain divided on the stock's long-term viability. While Mizuho and Needham set ambitious targets of $30 and $42, respectively, KBW's "Market Perform" rating at $27 reflects skepticism about execution risks. Truist Securities' Matthew Coad, however, views the post-IPO selloff as a buying opportunity, aligning with the $31 average target.

With Bitcoin nearing record highs and institutional interest in crypto intensifying, Gemini's ability to sustain user growth and navigate regulatory complexities will be critical. The company's recent partnerships, including a $47.7 million revenue boost from its Nasdaq collaboration, and its focus on tokenized equities, suggest a strategic pivot toward diversified revenue streams. For now, the $30 price target embodies a cautious yet optimistic bet on Gemini's potential to capture a larger share of the evolving crypto ecosystem.

Source: [1] Gemini Space Station (GEMI) Stock Forecast & Price Target (https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/GEMI/forecast/)

[2] Gemini Stock Gets $30 Price Target on Massive Payments Card ... (https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/10/11/gemini-stock-gets-30-price-target-on-massive-payments-card-adoption/)

[3] GEMI Gets Hold-Equivalent Rating at KBW - CoinDesk (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/07/newly-public-crypto-exchange-gemini-gets-lukewarm-reception-from-kbw)

[4] Gemini Receives Its MiCA Licence, Supporting Ongoing ... (https://www.gemini.com/blog/gemini-receives-its-mica-licence-supporting-ongoing-eu-expansion)

[5] Gemini's Strategic Regulatory Leap in Europe-August 2025 Analysis (https://www.thecryptoscoop.com/story/geminis-strategic-regulatory-leap-in-europe%E2%80%94august-2025-analysis)

[7] Analysts Set $30 Price Target for Gemini After Credit Card Growth (https://coincentral.com/analysts-set-30-price-target-for-gemini-after-credit-card-growth/)

[8] Gemini stock projected for 25% upside driven by crypto reward ... (https://www.theblock.co/post/373714/gemini-stock-projected-25-upside-driven-crypto-reward-card-flywheel-eu-license)