Gemini's Bold Expansion: Losses Widen Even as Revenue Jumps 52%

Gemini Space Station (GEMI) reported a $159.5 million net loss for Q3 2025, despite a 52% year-over-year revenue increase to $50.6 million according to financial reports. The losses, driven by $171.4 million in operating expenses—more than double the $76.8 million in the same period in 2024 according to earnings data—were attributed to IPO-related costs, marketing, and compensation. The company's stock plummeted to a record low of $14.75, down 40% from its $28 IPO price in September according to market analysis, extending a 70% decline from its peak.

The losses outpaced analyst expectations, with GAAP earnings per share of -$6.67, missing forecasts of -$3.24. While transaction revenue rose 26% to $26.3 million and services revenue surged 111% to $19.9 million—fueled by its crypto credit card and staking operations—the firm's adjusted EBITDA remained negative at $52.4 million according to financial statements. Co-founder Cameron Winklevoss highlighted a pivot to a "crypto super app" to integrate products like trading, staking, and custody, aiming to streamline financial services on-chain.

Gemini also announced plans to enter prediction markets, drawing comparisons to Bitcoin's early adoption in 2012. The firm filed for a derivatives exchange license with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, positioning itself to offer contracts tied to political and sports events. However, analysts at Goldman Sachs noted the challenges: "Higher expenses across categories" and a 10% decline in crypto market capitalization in Q4 are weighing on revenue streams according to market reports.

The exchange's credit card program, a key growth driver, surpassed 100,000 accounts and generated $350 million in quarterly spending. Yet, marketing costs spiked by $17 million quarter-over-quarter, with much of the spend tied to new user acquisition according to market analysis. Mizuho analysts called Gemini a "hidden gem," citing its regulatory compliance and innovation, but warned of risks from market volatility and potential rule changes.

Gemini's losses contrast sharply with rivals like Coinbase, which reported a $433 million Q3 profit. The firm's path to profitability remains uncertain, as it balances expansion into new markets with cost control. Winklevoss emphasized long-term goals: "This quarter marked a significant step forward in our mission," he stated, though the stock's post-earnings drop of 6.18% suggests investors remain skeptical.