GE Aerospace's Intraday Slide: A Storm in the Skies as Earnings Optimism Meets Technical Crosswinds

Summary
• GE Aerospace’s stock plunges 2.6% to $259.27 amid mixed market reaction to its 2Q25 results
• Earnings report highlights $175B backlog, $2.1B free cash flow, and 2028 guidance raise
• Boeing (BA) lags with -0.76% decline, contrasting GE’s sector-leading growth metrics

GE Aerospace’s 2Q25 earnings report delivered a blockbuster performance—yet its shares plunged 2.6% intraday as investors navigated conflicting signals. The stock opened at $270.28, hit a 52-week high of $272.8, and tumbled to $258.17 before stabilizing. While the company raised 2028 guidance to $11.5B in operating profit and $8.5B in free cash flow, the market’s bearish pivot suggests a recalibration of risk amid sector-specific headwinds.

Earnings Optimism Derailed by Geopolitical Jitters
GE’s 2Q25 results showcased 23% revenue growth, 23.0% operating profit margin, and a 38% surge in adjusted EPS. However, the market’s sharp sell-off followed a broader selloff in the aerospace sector triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions. Sector news highlighted rising European trade disputes, U.S.-China defense summits, and Israel-Iran conflict updates. These risks overshadowed GE’s robust commercial services growth and $24B shareholder return plan, as investors priced in potential supply chain disruptions and regulatory headwinds for defense contracts.

Aerospace Sector Volatility Amplifies GE’s Sell-Off
The aerospace sector remains under pressure as global defense budgets and trade policies collide. Boeing (BA) fell -0.76% on concerns over European supply chain delays and U.S. defense budget realignments. While GE’s 2Q25 guidance outperformed, its 2.6% decline mirrored sector-wide jitters over Iran-Israel tensions and U.S. sanctions on Russia. The sector’s focus on drone warfare modernization and privatized air traffic control systems—highlighted in Forbes and Military Aerospace—adds uncertainty, with GE’s commercial services growth now trading at a 34.96x dynamic P/E, above its 52W average.

Bearish Playbook: Leveraging Volatility with Theta-Driven Options
• MACD: 6.15 (above signal line 5.05), RSI: 68.19 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: Price at 259.27 (below middle band 250.41)
• 200D MA: 200.88 (well below current price), 30D MA: 248.92 (near-term support at 248.53–249.14)

GE’s technicals suggest a bearish short-term setup with support at $248.53 and resistance at $272.8. The options chain offers two high-leverage plays for downside volatility:

• GE20250725C260: Call option with 54.86% leverage, 24.67% implied volatility, and a 5.62 delta. Theta of -0.8468 indicates rapid time decay, while gamma of 0.038944 suggests sensitivity to price swings. Turnover at 252,411 contracts confirms liquidity.
• GE20250725C262.5: Call option with 76.81% leverage, 23.96% implied volatility, and 4.63 delta. Theta of -0.7338 and gamma of 0.040429 position it as a high-gamma, low-delta speculative play. Turnover at 206,026 contracts supports tradability.

Under a 5% downside scenario (ST = 246.31), GE20250725C260 would yield max profit of $13.69 per contract, while GE20250725C262.5 would expire worthless. Aggressive bearish traders may short the 262.5 call into a $250 support test, while bulls eye a rebound above $272.8.

Backtest GE Aerospace Stock Performance
General Electric (GE) has historically shown positive short-to-medium-term performance following a -3% intraday plunge. The backtest data reveals that:1. Frequency and Win Rates: The event occurred 552 times over the past five years, with a 3-day win rate of 54.89%, a 10-day win rate of 53.99%, and a 30-day win rate of 59.24%. This indicates a higher probability of a positive return in the immediate aftermath of the plunge.2. Returns: The average 3-day return following the event was 0.13%, with a maximum return of 0.33% on day 30. The 10-day return was slightly higher at 0.21%, with a maximum return of 0.33% on day 30. This suggests that while the returns may not be significantly high, they tend to be positive in the period following the intraday plunge.3. Maximum Return: The maximum return observed was 0.33%, which occurred on day 30, regardless of the initial day of the event. This implies that the best performance following a -3% intraday plunge tends to happen towards the end of the 30-day observation period.In conclusion, GE has a favorable track record of positive returns following a -3% intraday plunge, making it a potentially interesting opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on short-term rebounds. However, it's important to consider the overall market conditions and company-specific factors that may influence performance in the long term.

GE at a Crossroads: Watch $248.53 Support and Sector Catalysts
GE’s intraday selloff reflects a tug-of-war between earnings optimism and sector-specific risks. While the 200D MA at $200.88 remains a distant floor, near-term support at $248.53 could trigger a rebound if geopolitical tensions ease. Investors should monitor Boeing’s -0.76% performance as a sector barometer and watch for a breakout above $272.8 to validate 2028 guidance credibility. For now, a bearish bias is warranted, with a key watchlist on $248.53 and the 262.5 call’s gamma-driven volatility.