GDX's Impulsive Rally: Supply & Demand Mechanics at Play

The technical setup for GDX is now clear. The ETF is in a classic five-wave impulse pattern that began from the October 2025 low. This structure is the market's way of showing a powerful, sustained shift in supply and demand, where buyers are consistently absorbing selling pressure.

The core of the thesis is wave 3. It has already begun, with the index resuming its upward trajectory from the wave 2 low. That low, at $83.22, is the critical support level. As long as price holds above this point, the bullish supply-demand dynamic remains intact. Every dip back toward this zone is likely to be met with strong buying interest, reinforcing the trend.

The recent action confirms the strength of this move. GDX has pushed to a new 52-week high of $97.97, a clear break of prior resistance. This isn't a random pop; it's the market confirming the wave 3 advance. The internal breakdown shows the pattern is still unfolding: wave ((iii)) is currently in progress, with wave (iii) nearing completion. The primary trend is intact as long as the pivotal support at $83.22 holds. The path of least resistance is higher.

Volume & Momentum: Confirming the Buyer's Dominance

The move from support to new highs isn't just a price action; it's backed by strong volume and healthy momentum. The daily technical picture shows a clear "Strong Buy" signal, with eight buy indicators firing and zero sell signals. This overwhelming consensus confirms the market's conviction.

Momentum is solid but not stretched. The 14-day RSI sits at 57.93, which is comfortably in the "Buy" zone and indicates the rally has strength without entering overbought territory. The 10-day average volume of 22.67 million shares provides the necessary fuel for this advance, showing sustained institutional interest.

The math is straightforward. The rally has climbed $14.75 from the key wave 2 low at $83.22 to the new 52-week high of $97.97. That's a gain of roughly 17.5%. This isn't a weak bounce; it's a powerful, volume-supported move that confirms the bullish supply-demand shift we identified earlier. The buyer's dominance is clear.

The Next Leg: Wave 4 Pullback and Wave 5 Target

The immediate next move is a classic correction. Following the powerful wave 3 advance, a wave 4 pullback is expected. This is the market's natural pause before the final leg up. The structure points to a 3, 7, or 11-swing sequence, which typically finds support near the prior wave 2 low. That level, at $83.22, is the critical floor. Every dip back toward this zone is likely to be met with strong buying interest, reinforcing the trend.

The primary target for the subsequent wave 5 rally is the $100-104 area. This range aligns with the $96-100 zone mentioned in recent analysis, with $104 representing a potential extension. The math is straightforward: the wave 3 move from $83.22 to the new high of $97.97 was a gain of roughly 17.5%. A wave 5 extension of 61.8% or 100% of that move would land right in this target zone. The path of least resistance remains higher, but the market must first digest this correction.

The key risk to the bullish count is a break below the $83.22 wave 2 low. That level is the technical anchor for the entire impulse pattern. A decisive close below it would invalidate the five-wave structure and signal a potential shift in supply and demand. For now, the setup is clean: a corrective pullback into support, followed by a final push to new highs.