Gazprom1H EBITDA 1.551 rubles

Gazprom1H EBITDA 1.551 rubles

Gazprom's latest financial performance, with an EBITDA of 1.551 trillion rubles in 2025, underscores the company's strategic pivot towards Asia, particularly in the context of the Power of Siberia pipeline network. This shift, driven by geopolitical and market dynamics, has significant implications for Russia's energy security and China's energy diversification.

The Power of Siberia 1 (PoS-1) pipeline, now delivering 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year to China by 2025, has exceeded expectations and offset a substantial portion of Russia's European gas export losses since 2021 [1]. This success is a testament to the viability of cross-border energy infrastructure and Russia's ability to redirect gas exports to a high-demand market. However, the future of this strategic initiative lies in the proposed Power of Siberia 2 (PoS-2) pipeline, which is currently mired in pricing disputes and geopolitical uncertainties.

The PoS-2 pipeline, with a capacity of 50 bcm/year, is essential for Russia to further solidify its energy ties with China. Russia seeks to sell gas at $257 per 1,000 cubic meters, aligned with its European rates, while China demands a price closer to its domestic level of $60 per 1,000 cubic meters. This $197-per-unit gap represents a significant annual discrepancy, highlighting the economic and geopolitical challenges [2].

Mongolia's role in PoS-2 further complicates the equation. The exclusion of the Soyuz Vostok segment of PoS-2 from Mongolia's 2024–2028 national development plan signals a lack of political commitment [3]. Mongolia, caught between its economic ties to Russia and security concerns with China, is wary of becoming a geopolitical pawn. However, Beijing's rejection of alternative routes via Kazakhstan due to infrastructure constraints has forced Moscow to retain Mongolia's inclusion [4].

Despite these challenges, the pipeline network offers high-margin investment opportunities in ancillary infrastructure, including gas processing facilities, storage terminals, and compressor stations. These projects are critical for maintaining pipeline pressure and purity, as well as managing seasonal demand fluctuations [5]. For investors, these projects align with China's energy security goals and Russia's need to monetize its vast gas reserves.

Gazprom's EBITDA performance in 2025 reflects the company's strategic focus on Asia and its efforts to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions. However, the geopolitical risks associated with the PoS-2 pipeline project remain significant. The unresolved pricing dispute between Russia and China, as well as Mongolia's hesitancy, could delay or derail the project entirely [6].

In conclusion, Gazprom's EBITDA performance in 2025 underscores the company's strategic pivot towards Asia, particularly in the context of the Power of Siberia pipeline network. While PoS-1 has proven its value, PoS-2's success hinges on resolving pricing disputes and securing Mongolia's cooperation. For investors, the ancillary infrastructure projects offer a path to capitalize on this energy transition, albeit with significant geopolitical risks.

References:
[1] https://www.ainvest.com/news/russia-strategic-gas-proliferation-china-implications-energy-markets-2508/
[2] https://www.ainvest.com/news/russia-strategic-gas-proliferation-china-implications-energy-markets-2508/
[3] https://www.ainvest.com/news/russia-strategic-gas-proliferation-china-implications-energy-markets-2508/
[4] https://www.ainvest.com/news/russia-strategic-gas-proliferation-china-implications-energy-markets-2508/
[5] https://www.ainvest.com/news/russia-strategic-gas-proliferation-china-implications-energy-markets-2508/
[6] https://www.ainvest.com/news/russia-strategic-gas-proliferation-china-implications-energy-markets-2508/