Garmin's Stock Plummets 12%: Earnings Success or Sales Shortfall?

Summary
• Garmin (GRMN) plunges 12.11% intraday to $218.04, marking its worst single-day drop since 2020.
• Q3 revenue hits record $1.8B, but outdoor segment sales decline 5% amid weak auto and adventure watch demand.
• Earnings beat estimates ($1.99/share) but sales miss by $10M, triggering investor skepticism.
• PR Newswire highlights 'record operating income' and product launches like fēnix 8 Pro, yet shares remain under pressure.

Garmin’s sharp selloff reflects a tug-of-war between strong earnings and soft sales. While the company raised full-year guidance, the market fixated on the outdoor segment’s struggles and muted holiday season optimism. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $169.26, traders are recalibrating risk ahead of key support levels.

Sales Miss and Sector Weakness Spark Selloff
Garmin’s 12.11% intraday drop stems from a combination of a $10M sales shortfall in Q3 and sector-specific headwinds. Despite matching earnings estimates ($1.99/share) and reporting record operating income of $457M, the outdoor segment’s 5% revenue decline—driven by weaker auto and adventure watch sales—alarmed investors. The PR Newswire highlighted product innovations like the fēnix 8 Pro, but these were overshadowed by the company’s acknowledgment of 'consumer auto and adventure watch product categories' underperforming against prior-year cycles. The market’s bearish reaction underscores skepticism about Garmin’s ability to sustain growth in its core outdoor markets.

Bearish Options and ETFs for a Volatile Play
• 200-day average: 219.16 (just below current price)
• RSI: 33.52 (oversold territory)
• MACD: 1.75 (bearish divergence with price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 218.04, near lower band (243.95)
• Support/Resistance: 213.36 (intraday low) and 221.88 (intraday high)

Garmin’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias despite long-term bullish fundamentals. The stock is testing key support at $213.36, with RSI in oversold territory and MACD signaling bearish momentum. Two options stand out for aggressive bearish plays:

• GRMN20251121P210 (Put):
- Strike: $210, Expiration: 2025-11-21
- IV: 32.65% (moderate volatility), Leverage: 64.04% (high), Delta: -0.2859 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.0545 (slow decay), Gamma: 0.0185 (modest sensitivity to price swings), Turnover: 11,086 (liquid)
- Payoff: At 5% downside (207.14), intrinsic value = $2.86. Potential return: 64.04% leverage amplifies gains if price breaks below $210.
- Why it works: High leverage and moderate delta position this put to capitalize on a breakdown below $210, with sufficient liquidity for entry/exit.

• GRMN20251121P220 (Put):
- Strike: $220, Expiration: 2025-11-21
- IV: 35.68% (elevated), Leverage: 26.39% (moderate), Delta: -0.4933 (high sensitivity), Theta: -0.0324 (slow decay), Gamma: 0.0199 (strong sensitivity to price swings), Turnover: 29,742 (highly liquid)
- Payoff: At 5% downside (207.14), intrinsic value = $12.86. Potential return: 26.39% leverage offers balanced risk/reward for a deeper selloff.
- Why it works: High delta and gamma make this put ideal for a sharp move below $220, with elevated IV reflecting market uncertainty.

Action: Aggressive bears should prioritize GRMN20251121P210 for a 5% downside target. If $210 breaks, consider rolling into GRMN20251219P200 for extended bearish exposure.

Backtest Garmin Stock Performance
Below is the interactive event-study module. It summarizes the market’s behaviour after every –12 % intraday plunge in Garmin (GRMN.N) since 2022 and lets you explore the post-event return curve, win-rate table, optimal holding horizon, etc.Key takeaways (quick reading):• Only two qualifying plunges occurred in the sample window, so statistical power is limited. • Despite the shock, GRMN closed higher 1-day later 100 % of the time and kept a positive drift up to 30 trading days, peaking at ≈ 13 % cumulative gain around day 29. • None of the horizons showed statistically significant alpha at the 5 % level except day 13, suggesting results could be sample-size noise.Feel free to interact with the charts / tables for deeper insight.

Garmin at Crossroads: Support Tests and Sector Signals
Garmin’s 12% selloff has created a critical juncture for investors. The stock’s ability to hold above $213.36 (intraday low) will determine whether this is a buying opportunity or a deeper correction. Technically, the RSI in oversold territory and bearish MACD suggest short-term pain, but the 200-day average at $219.16 remains intact. For context, the Technology Hardware sector leader Apple (AAPL) is down 0.03%, signaling mixed sentiment. Traders should monitor Garmin’s 52-week low of $169.26 as a key psychological level. Act now: If $213.36 breaks, consider GRMN20251121P210 for a bearish play. Bulls should wait for a rebound above $221.88 before re-entering.