Garmin's Stock Plummets 11%: Earnings Triumph Overshadowed by Market Realignment?

Summary
• Garmin (GRMN) plunges 11.1% intraday to $220.63, erasing $28B in market cap
• Q3 revenue hits $1.77B, beats estimates but trails prior year's $1.59B
• Fitness segment surges 30% to $601M, while outdoor revenue dips 5%
• Earnings call highlights $7.1B full-year revenue guidance, $8.15 EPS raise
Garmin's sharp selloff defies stellar Q3 results, as investors recalibrate expectations amid mixed segment performance. The stock's 12.3% drop reflects a tug-of-war between bullish fundamentals and bearish sector dynamics, with the wearables market tightening under competitive pressures.

Earnings Beat Overshadowed by Sales Miss and Revised Guidance
Garmin's 11.1% intraday plunge stems from a combination of factors: a $10M sales miss against $1.78B estimates, downward revision of outdoor segment guidance, and market skepticism toward long-term margin sustainability. While the company raised full-year EPS to $8.15 (up $0.15), the 12% revenue growth (vs 20% in Q2) signaled deceleration. The outdoor segment's 5% decline—driven by Fenix 8 Pro's late Q3 launch—spooked investors, who now question the durability of Garmin's premium pricing power in a saturated wearables market.

Wearables Sector Mixed as Apple Trails Garmin's Slide
The wearables sector remains fragmented, with Apple (-0.13%) underperforming Garmin's selloff. While Garmin's fitness segment grew 30%, Apple's Watch SE 3 launch faces tepid demand. Meta's $799 Ray-Ban Display glasses and Samsung's Galaxy Ring 4 highlight intensifying competition. Garmin's 28.06x P/E ratio lags behind sector peers like Fitbit (19.2x) and Whoop (24.7x), suggesting valuation concerns despite robust cash flow generation.

Options and ETF Picks for Garmin's Volatile Outlook
• 200-day MA: $219.16 (near) • RSI: 33.5 (oversold) • MACD: 1.75 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: 243.95–260.27
Garmin's technicals suggest a short-term bounce from key support at $213.36 (intraday low), with RSI at oversold levels. The 200-day MA ($219.16) offers a critical psychological level to watch. For aggressive plays, consider:
• GRMN20251121P210 (Put, $210 strike, Nov 21): IV 30.33%, leverage 88.36%, delta -0.238, theta -0.048, gamma 0.018, turnover 19,085. This contract benefits from a 5% downside scenario (ST=209.6), yielding $10.63 payoff.
• GRMN20251219C210 (Call, $210 strike, Dec 19): IV 49.91%, leverage 12.62%, delta 0.681, theta -0.181, gamma 0.011, turnover 110,518. Ideal for a rebound above $220, with 53% implied volatility cushion. If $213.36 holds, GRMN20251219C210 offers short-term upside; if not, GRMN20251121P210 provides downside protection. Watch for a break above $227.29 (intraday high) to validate bullish momentum.

Backtest Garmin Stock Performance

Garmin at Crossroads: Defend $213.36 or Rejoin Bull Run
Garmin's 11.1% selloff tests critical support at $213.36, with RSI at oversold levels suggesting a potential rebound. The stock's 32.57% 1Y gain contrasts with its 10.22% 1M drop, reflecting mixed investor sentiment. If $213.36 holds, the 200-day MA ($219.16) becomes a key target. Conversely, a breakdown below $213.36 could trigger a retest of the 52W low ($169.26). Watch Apple (-0.13%) for sector cues. Aggressive bulls may consider GRMN20251219C210 into a bounce above $220, while bears eye GRMN20251121P210 for a 5% downside play. Position sizing should reflect the stock's 1.2x beta and 11.1% volatility.