Garmin Plunges 7.4% On Death Cross Signal And Record Volume

Garmin (GRMN) declined 7.44% in the latest trading session (2025-07-30), closing at $221.49 on elevated volume of 2.78 million shares. This sharp move prompts a multifaceted technical assessment using standardized analytical frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
A pronounced bearish engulfing pattern materialized as the recent 7.44% decline completely consumed the preceding three sessions' gains. This candle closed near its low ($219.91), establishing this level as immediate support, while the high of $242.465 from the same session now serves as primary resistance. The long upper wick indicates rejection of higher prices, and the breakdown below the consolidation zone around $230-240 weakens the structure. A confirmed close below $219.91 may signal extension toward the $200 psychological barrier.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (~$228) crossed below the 100-day SMA (~$217) this week, generating a "death cross" that typically signals medium-term bearish momentum. Price now trades below both the 50-day and 100-day averages but remains above the rising 200-day SMA (~$202). This configuration suggests deteriorating intermediate momentum within a longer-term uptrend. The convergence of the 50/100-day SMAs near $222-$225 creates a technical resistance zone for recovery attempts.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has entered negative territory with the signal line crossing below zero, confirming bearish momentum acceleration. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator shows K-line (20) and D-line (25) diving below the oversold threshold (30), while the J-line extends into negative extremes (-8). Although this indicates deeply oversold conditions, the absence of bullish divergence suggests persistent downward pressure. These momentum oscillators collectively signal weakness, with any technical bounce requiring MACD signal line recapture and KDJ bullish crossover for confirmation.
Bollinger Bands
Price closed below the lower Bollinger Band ($226) with bandwidth expanding 18% over three sessions – the most significant volatility spike in six months. Historically, such deviations often precede mean-reversion bounces, but the magnitude of this breakdown reduces reliability. A sustained position below the lower band suggests potential continuation, with the middle band ($235) now acting as dynamic resistance. The expanded bandwidth implies elevated near-term volatility risk.
Volume-Price Relationship
The breakdown occurred on 277% above-average volume – the highest volume day since April 2025 – validating bearish conviction. This volume spike during downside resolution contrasts with declining volume during the prior consolidation phase, confirming sustainable bearish momentum. For reversal potential, watch for accumulation patterns including high-volume bullish reversals or diminishing downside volume.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (28.4) now tests oversold territory (<30) for the first time since June 2025. While this condition sometimes precedes technical rebounds, its occurrence amid accelerating momentum reduces predictive reliability. During the April 2025 decline, RSI remained oversold for seven sessions as prices fell another 8%. Current readings indicate oversold risk but require confirmation from other indicators for reversal signals.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the rally from August 2024 low ($161.63) to July 2025 high ($242.465) shows critical thresholds. The 23.6% retracement ($223.55) failed to hold during the latest session, turning it into resistance. The subsequent support appears at the 38.2% level ($208.50), closely aligned with the 200-day SMA. The 50% retracement ($202.05) converges with the psychologically significant $200 level, establishing a high-confluence support zone should bearish momentum extend.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence strengthens the bearish case: The breakdown occurred with MACD negative crossover, volume confirmation, and Bollinger Band penetration simultaneously. The 50/100-day SMA death cross bolsters resistance near $225, while Fibonacci places secondary resistance at $223.55. Notable divergence exists between the deeply oversold KDJ/RSI readings and sustained bearish price action – historically a precursor to sharp countertrend rallies in GRMN. However, without confirming reversal signals, this divergence serves only as a cautionary alert rather than an actionable signal. Probabilistically, the confluence of indicators suggests near-term continuation toward the $208-$202 support zone is more likely than immediate reversal, though oversold conditions elevate rebound potential within the bearish structure.