Galaxy Digital: Rosenblatt's $39 Buy Now Depends on Helios, Not Just a Crypto Bounce

Rosenblatt is asking investors to look past a weak Q1

The chart has already done a lot of the work. Galaxy's shares have gained around 70% over the past 12 months, but Rosenblatt's $39 target is tied to an infrastructure-led earnings model, not simply another crypto surge. That matters because Rosenblatt also expected Q1 to miss consensus on weaker trading volumes and lower crypto prices. For now, the market is being asked to pay for the next phase of the business before that shift is fully visible.

What bulls and bears are actually debating

Bulls can point to Q1 net loss and adjusted EBITDA loss of $188 million as old news, especially if buy-side expectations already reflected a weak quarter. They also see the first data hall delivered to CoreWeave as evidence that Helios is moving from construction into revenue-generating operations.

Bears see the timing differently. If the rerating now depends on data-center earnings, investors still need proof of more durable infrastructure revenue rather than another move driven by crypto sentiment.

Galaxy's Q1 was stable on capital, but still volatile on earnings

A strong balance sheet does not turn a messy quarter into a clean earnings story.

The foundation was solid; the profit picture was not

Galaxy ended Q1 with total equity of $2.8 billion and cash and stablecoins holdings of $2.6 billion. That gives it room to absorb a rough period without immediate financing stress.

Still, the income statement was weak. Galaxy reported a Q1 2026 net loss of $216 million and adjusted EBITDA of $(188) million. The balance sheet held up, but the results were still dominated by crypto-linked volatility.

Why that matters for the valuation argument

Management said the net loss was driven primarily by unrealized mark-to-market declines on balance sheet digital asset holdings. That keeps the headline numbers tied to digital-asset price swings even if the underlying operating businesses are more resilient.

That is also the core of Rosenblatt's case. It is not asking investors to ignore a weak quarter forever; it is asking them to look past it because Q1 will mark the beginning of Galaxy Digital's transition toward a model of infrastructure-led earnings. Until that mix changes in practice, Galaxy still looks more like a business with a strong balance sheet than one with stable, infrastructure-style earnings.

The bull case works only if Helios starts carrying more of the story

Rosenblatt is still saying Buy, but the rating depends more on what comes next than on Q1 itself.

A higher multiple only works with a different earnings mix

Rosenblatt's $39 target is based on 26 times its 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate. Rosenblatt also said data center infrastructure is a higher-multiple business. That means the bull case depends on investors increasingly valuing Galaxy for its data-center platform, not just for its exposure to the crypto cycle.

CoreWeave and Helios are the proof points

Earlier this month, Galaxy said it delivered the first data hall to CoreWeave. That is an important milestone because it moves Helios closer to operating revenue rather than leaving it as only a construction story.

Galaxy also said it received approval for an additional 830 megawatts of capacity at Helios, doubling total approved capacity to more than 1.6 gigawatts. That does not prove earnings quality by itself, but it does show the scale of the project if demand for AI infrastructure holds up.

Bulls argue the sequencing matters more than the miss: expectations for the weak quarter may already be in the stock, and initial CoreWeave revenue could start shifting attention toward infrastructure. Bears argue the opposite: if infrastructure revenue remains small relative to the rest of the business, a higher-multiple thesis is still early.

What investors should watch in June

Crypto strength can still help the stock, but Helios execution is the more important scoreboard.

The near-term event stack

Galaxy has scheduled management commentary at several events, including the Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference on June 2, Piper Sandler on June 4, Morgan Stanley on June 9, and the Macquarie AI Infrastructure Conference and Rosenblatt Age of AI Conference on June 10. Those forums could matter if management uses them to shift the conversation from the last volatile quarter toward the company's data-center roadmap.

What would strengthen the story

• Evidence that initial revenue from CoreWeave is becoming a more meaningful part of results.
• More proof that the data-center business is gaining financial weight against crypto-cycle volatility.
• Commentary focused on HPC data centers and AI power and compute demand, as Galaxy has said it will discuss.

What would weaken it

• A renewed emphasis on crypto tailwinds instead of contracted infrastructure progress.
• Results where the recent adjusted EBITDA loss is still dominated by mark-to-market swings rather than improving operating leverage.

If those signals do not improve, Galaxy may remain a solid platform with messy earnings rather than a cleaner infrastructure rerating.