Galaxy Digital Soars 7.75% on ERCOT Approval and Analyst Optimism: What's Next for GLXY?

Summary
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY) surges 7.75% intraday to $34.47, driven by ERCOT power capacity approval and bullish analyst price targets.
• The stock trades 30.7% above its 20-day SMA and 9.1% above its 100-day SMA, signaling strong short-term momentum.
• Institutional investors and hedge funds have increased stakes in GLXY, with SG Americas Securities doubling its position to $5.65 million.

Galaxy Digital’s intraday rally reflects a confluence of regulatory milestones, institutional backing, and analyst optimism. The stock’s 7.75% surge—its highest since the 52-week high of $45.92—has drawn attention to its expanding data center operations and tokenized CLO debut. With RSI at 76.21 and MACD above its signal line, the technicals align with fundamental catalysts, creating a high-conviction trade for 2026.

ERCOT Expansion and Tokenized CLO Drive GLXY's Rally
Galaxy Digital’s 7.75% intraday surge is anchored by two key catalysts: (1) ERCOT’s approval of an additional 830 MW for its Helios data center, doubling total capacity to 1.6 GW, and (2) the initial $75M tranche of its tokenized CLO. The ERCOT approval validates the company’s pivot into AI/data-center demand, while the tokenized CLO diversifies revenue streams and strengthens balance sheet capacity. Analysts at Morgan Stanley and Canaccord Genuity have raised price targets to $42–$50, citing these developments as material operational milestones. The stock’s 30.7% premium to its 20-day SMA and 9.1% premium to its 100-day SMA further underscore the market’s enthusiasm for these near-term catalysts.

Data Processing Sector Gains Momentum as GLXY Outperforms
The Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector, led by Equinix (EQIX) with a 0.57% intraday gain, has seen mixed performance year-to-date. Galaxy Digital, however, has outpaced its peers, gaining 43.1% YTD compared to the sector’s 18.4% average. This divergence is driven by GLXY’s unique positioning in crypto infrastructure and AI/data-center expansion, which are not core to most sector peers. The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, where GLXY operates, has lost 8.5% YTD, further highlighting the stock’s resilience amid broader sector weakness.

Options and ETFs for GLXY's Volatile Rally
• RSI: 76.21 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.476 (bullish)
• 200-day SMA: Empty
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $29.52, Middle $25.01, Lower $20.50
• Support/Resistance: 30D $25.44–$25.63

Galaxy Digital’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with RSI near overbought territory and MACD above its signal line. Key levels to watch include the 52-week high of $45.92 and the 200-day SMA (if available). The stock’s high beta (3.88) and volatility make it a candidate for leveraged options. Two top options from the chain are:

• GLXY20260123C33 (Call, $33 strike, 2026-01-23):
- IV: 70.40% (high)
- Leverage Ratio: 14.66%
- Delta: 0.6958 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.191987 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.097045 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 125,030 (high liquidity)
- Payoff (5% upside): $1.72 per contract (max(0, $36.19 - $33)).
This call option offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a continuation of the rally.

• GLXY20260123C34 (Call, $34 strike, 2026-01-23):
- IV: 70.57% (high)
- Leverage Ratio: 19.65%
- Delta: 0.5893 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.184910 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.107622 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 48,832 (high liquidity)
- Payoff (5% upside): $2.20 per contract (max(0, $36.19 - $34)).
This contract provides higher leverage and gamma, making it suitable for aggressive bulls expecting a breakout above $34.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider GLXY20260123C34 into a breakout above $34.50, while conservative traders can use GLXY20260123C33 for a more balanced play.

Backtest Galaxy Digital Stock Performance
Galaxy Digital (GLXY) experienced a significant intraday surge of 8% on October 22, 2025, which is a notable reversal from its performance during the previous period from 2022 to 2025, where it faced multiple substantial intraday drops. This recent surge reflects positively in the stock's performance, indicating a potential recovery or market reevaluation of the company's prospects.1. Intraday Surge on October 22, 2025: GLXY saw a remarkable increase of up to 8% during trading hours on October 22, 2025, reaching an all-time high of $45.92 before closing at $42.86. This surge marks a strong positive movement for the stock, suggesting heightened investor confidence or favorable market reactions to recent news about the company.2. Performance from 2022 to 2025: In contrast, GLXY faced challenging market conditions from 2022 to 2025, with a notable intraday plunge of at least 13% on multiple occasions being considered for the backtest analysis. These drops were indicative of broader market volatility and possibly company-specific issues, such as financial losses due to plummeting crypto prices.3. Recent Positive Developments: The recent jump in GLXY's stock price can be attributed to several factors, including a strategic shift towards profitability and a significant increase in net income. Galaxy Digital reported a net income of $505 million, a massive 1,615% improvement from a $33.3 million net loss in the same period the previous year. Additionally, revenues skyrocketed by 231% to $28.4 billion compared to $8.57 billion year-on-year. These improvements likely contributed to the stock's positive performance and intraday surge.In conclusion, the performance of GLXY after the intraday surge of 8% on October 22, 2025, represents a stark contrast to its performance during the earlier period from 2022 to 2025, which was marred by significant intraday drops. The recent surge reflects positively on the stock, indicating potential growth or a market reevaluation of the company's prospects following its strategic shift towards profitability and substantial increase in net income.

GLXY's Rally Faces Key Resistance: Act Now or Miss the Wave
Galaxy Digital’s 7.75% intraday surge is a testament to its strategic execution in crypto infrastructure and AI/data-center expansion. However, the stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and overbought RSI (76.21) suggest caution. The options chain and technicals favor a continuation of the rally if GLXY breaks above $34.50, with the tokenized CLO and Q4 earnings on February 3 as near-term catalysts. Investors should monitor the sector leader Equinix (EQIX), which gained 0.57% today, for broader market sentiment. Act now to secure positions in GLXY’s call options or ETFs if the stock holds above $32.38 (intraday low).