Galaxy Digital (GLXY) Plummets 4.13% Amid $460M Investment and AI Ambitions – What’s Brewing?

Summary
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY) plunges 4.13% to $39.525, trading below its 52-week high of $44.33
• $460M private investment from a 'large asset manager' announced, with shares sold at $36 (8.5% discount)
• GalaxyOne, a Robinhood-like trading app with 8% yield notes, launched to target accredited investors

Galaxy Digital’s stock faces a sharp intraday decline as a $460 million funding round and a new retail trading platform spark mixed market reactions. The stock’s 4.13% drop to $39.525—its lowest since mid-October—reflects investor skepticism about the firm’s pivot from Bitcoin mining to AI data centers and its aggressive expansion plans. With a $1.4 billion Helios campus build underway and GalaxyOne’s yield-bearing accounts now live, the stock’s volatility underscores the high-stakes transition in the crypto-to-AI sector.

Strategic Investment and AI Pivot Fuel Volatility
Galaxy Digital’s 4.13% intraday drop follows a $460 million private investment from an unnamed asset manager, which includes 9.03 million shares sold at $36—a 8.5% discount to Friday’s closing price. While the funding is intended to accelerate the Helios data center’s 133 MW AI/HPC buildout, the steep discount and lack of transparency around the investor’s identity have raised red flags. Simultaneously, the launch of GalaxyOne—a Robinhood-like app offering 8% yield notes for accredited investors—has introduced regulatory and liquidity risks. The market’s reaction suggests skepticism about the firm’s ability to balance its dual focus on AI infrastructure and retail finance, particularly as Bitcoin mining margins remain razor-thin.

Data Processing Sector Volatile as IBM Slides 1.3%
The Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector remains mixed, with IBM (IBM) down 1.3% as AI infrastructure spending concerns persist. Galaxy Digital’s 4.13% drop outpaces broader sector weakness, reflecting its unique exposure to crypto-to-AI transitions and regulatory scrutiny. While IBM’s decline highlights macroeconomic headwinds for cloud and AI providers, GLXY’s move is more tied to its aggressive capital-raising and product diversification. The sector’s fragmented response underscores diverging investor sentiment between established players and high-growth disruptors.

Options and ETFs Highlight Short-Term Volatility
• RSI: 68.2 (overbought)
• MACD: 3.33 (bullish), Signal Line: 2.87
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $42.76, Middle $35.71, Lower $28.66
• 200D MA: Not available

Galaxy Digital’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition, with RSI at 68.2 and MACD above the signal line. However, the stock’s 4.13% drop has pushed it closer to the 35.71 middle Bollinger Band, indicating potential support. Traders should monitor the 39.525 level, with a 5% downside scenario (to $37.55) testing key support. The 10/17 options expiry offers liquidity-rich contracts for directional bets.

Top Options Picks:
• GLXY20251017P39: Put option with 39 strike, 10/17 expiry, IV 105.71%, leverage 29.26%, delta -0.404, theta -0.0367, gamma 0.0879, turnover 1,893. High IV and moderate delta suggest strong bearish potential if the stock breaks below $39.
• GLXY20251017C40: Call option with 40 strike, 10/17 expiry, IV 103.87%, leverage 24.27%, delta 0.505, theta -0.4027, gamma 0.0922, turnover 15,905. High liquidity and gamma make this ideal for a rebound above $40.

Payoff Analysis: A 5% downside to $37.55 would yield $1.45 per share for the GLXY20251017P39 (39 put), while the GLXY20251017C40 call would expire worthless. Aggressive bulls may consider the 40 call into a bounce above $40, while bears should target the 39 put if support breaks.

Backtest Galaxy Digital Stock Performance
Key findings 1. From 1 Jan 2022 – 14 Oct 2025 we detected 41 sessions in which Galaxy Digital (GLXY.O) fell 4 % or more from the open to the intraday low. 2. On average the stock posted a positive drift in the following month, but the excess over a passive “buy-and-hold” benchmark never reached statistical significance at conventional levels. 3. The rebound was front-loaded: roughly half of the total 30-day gain was realised within the first two weeks. 4. Win-rates stayed around 55-65 %, indicating a slight upward bias but still a meaningful chance of continued weakness. 5. Result stability is moderate; expanding the sample or tightening the filter could improve robustness.Parameter notes • Event definition: (Low-Open)/Open ≤ −4 % on a given day. • Sample window: equity closes from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-14 (latest available). • Evaluation horizon: 30 trading days after each event (default for event engine). • Price series: daily close. • No additional risk controls applied because this is an event study, not an implementable trading strategy.You can inspect the full interactive event-study dashboard below.

GLXY at Crossroads: AI Bet or Correction?
Galaxy Digital’s 4.13% drop reflects investor caution around its $460 million funding round and AI-driven pivot, despite the Helios campus’s long-term potential. The stock’s proximity to the 35.71 Bollinger Band and 39.525 support level suggests a critical juncture. Traders should watch for a breakdown below $39 to validate bearish sentiment or a rebound above $40 to reignite AI optimism. With IBM (IBM) down 1.3%, sector-wide jitters persist, but GLXY’s unique exposure to crypto-to-AI transitions demands closer scrutiny. Act now: Short-term bears may target the 39 put, while bulls should test the 40 call if the stock reclaims $40.50.