Galaxy Digital Still Looks Cheap-if CoreWeave's 200 MW Becomes 10-Year Rent

Helios Phase I Makes Galaxy Less of a Speculation

Rent commencement changes the setup

This is no longer just an "AI infrastructure could matter" story. Galaxy has now delivered approximately 200 MW of gross power-133 MW of critical IT load-to CoreWeave, and rent commencement under the Phase I lease beginning in the second quarter of 2026. That moves Helios Phase I from construction risk toward contracted income on a 15-year lease.

The bullish case is straightforward: hard assets, an anchor tenant, and long-duration lease backing can make scarce power more valuable over time. The bearish case is just as clear: one delivered phase and one anchor lease do not yet prove that the whole campus will monetize smoothly. But the burden of proof has shifted. Galaxy no longer needs to rely only on the promise of AI demand; it has already built and leased the first piece.

Phase II is still underway, with data hall deliveries expected in the first half of 2027. That keeps the pipeline alive while the market starts judging Galaxy less as a concept and more as an operating infrastructure program.

The Bull Case: Long-Term Lease Revenue Could Support a Higher Multiple

Financing and committed load make the story more concrete

The rerating case is not about finding another AI narrative. It is about the market valuing leased AI infrastructure on the strength of backed cash flow rather than pure development optionality.

Galaxy has $1.4 billion of project financing in place, alongside a $350 million equity requirement, with the remaining construction costs covered by debt at 80% loan-to-cost and secured by the assets associated with Phase I. That does not remove execution risk, but it does signal that the project has financing support tied directly to the underlying assets.

Demand also looks more tangible than in a typical pre-leasing story. CoreWeave has committed to 526 MW of critical IT load across Phases I through III, covering the full 800 MW of gross power currently approved and contracted at Helios. Those leases are expected to generate more than $1 billion in average annual revenue. Bears can rightly note that committed megawatts are not the same as collected cash. Even so, they are closer to cash flow than most AI infrastructure demand signals.

Helios and McGregor create a broader platform

The scale is big enough to matter. Helios has 1.6+ gigawatts of total approved power capacity across 1,500+ acres. Beyond West Texas, Galaxy is also advancing Project Merlin at McGregor, with a 74 MW first phase and room for a multi-hundred-megawatt campus through 2030.

That does not guarantee a rerating. But it does create a more credible pipeline: secured power, leased load, and a second Texas site that could extend the model if execution holds.

The Bear Case: Capital Intensity Can Still Keep the Multiple Compressed

CoreWeave helps, but it does not remove funding risk

The bearish case is not about weak AI demand. It is about whether the capital burden can outrun the rent.

Helios 2, 3, and 4 represent a $3.5 billion combined investment, with construction set to begin in March and April 2026 and various components coming online through late 2027. That is a long runway for financing, sequencing, and execution risk. Project finance can insulate an individual phase, but it does not fully relieve Galaxy of the pressure of funding and managing a much larger campus buildout.

Signed leases reduce demand risk; they do not eliminate capital-allocation risk. If investors believe too much equity must be added over time, or if debt capacity becomes a bottleneck between phases, the stock can stay cheap even with durable tenant commitments.

McGregor strengthens the story, but monetization is still further out

Project Merlin adds scale to the platform case, with a 74 MW first phase and expansion potential through 2030. But the McGregor site still sits further down the development path, which means Helios remains the only near-term source of meaningful lease income.

There is also a valuation-clarity issue. Galaxy continues to describe the shift as expanding beyond crypto, which highlights why the market may still apply a conglomerate-style discount. If investors cannot separate the infrastructure assets from Galaxy's crypto heritage, the rerating can be delayed even without a tenant default.

What Would Confirm the Opportunity-and What Would Break It

After rent commencement ... beginning in the second quarter of 2026, Helios is less of a promise and more of an operating asset. The next moves that matter are simple:

What would support the bargain

• Lease-up momentum carries from Phase I into Phase II on schedule
• Project finance continues to support delivery without larger-than-expected equity asks
• More of the Helios pipeline gets leased as it comes online
• McGregor keeps converting commitments into privately funded infrastructure

What would weaken the thesis

• Delivery slips after Phase I rent commencement
• Later phases reach late 2027 without secured tenants
• Funding language around the project financing becomes less supportive
• McGregor falls short on its privately funded substation and water commitments

If those execution signals hold, Galaxy has a credible path to being valued more like leased AI infrastructure and less like a construction option. If they break, the market may keep treating it as a capital-intensive buildout story.