Gabon’s New President Sets Path Back to Constitutional Order – But Can He Deliver on Economic Promises?

Gabon’s political transition reached a critical juncture in May 2025 with the inauguration of Gen. Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, the former head of Gabon’s Republican Guard, as the nation’s fourth president. His landslide victory in April’s election—securing 94.85% of the vote—marked the end of a two-year military-led transition following the 2023 ouster of longtime leader Ali Bongo Ondimba. Now, Nguema faces an equally daunting challenge: transforming Gabon’s economy from one reliant on volatile oil revenues to a diversified, equitable system capable of lifting its population out of poverty. For investors, his agenda presents both opportunities and risks steeped in Gabon’s complex socio-political reality.

Economic Diversification: Breaking Free from Oil
Nguema’s pledge to reduce Gabon’s dependence on oil—a sector that accounts for over 50% of GDP and 80% of export earnings—is central to his vision.
The data reveals a stark trend: oil’s share of GDP has fluctuated between 45–60% over the past two decades, underscoring the economy’s vulnerability to price swings. Nguema’s plan to attract foreign investment into agriculture, mining, and renewable energy could unlock new sectors. Gabon’s untapped bauxite and manganese reserves, for instance, offer potential for mining ventures, while its abundant forests and solar potential could fuel green energy projects.

However, progress hinges on resolving systemic issues. 40% of Gabonese youth are unemployed—a crisis Nguema aims to tackle through education reform.
The chart shows a stagnant rate above 35% since 2015, suggesting systemic failures in skills training. Without meaningful educational overhauls, even successful economic diversification may fail to create jobs for the 2.3 million population, a third of whom live in poverty.

Infrastructure Deficits and Anti-Corruption Pledges
Nguema’s promise to improve connectivity via new roads and utilities addresses a critical bottleneck. Gabon’s current infrastructure ranks poorly compared to regional peers, with only 30% of roads paved. Yet, his anti-corruption rhetoric lacks concrete measures, raising red flags.
Gabon’s score has hovered between 24–30 (out of 100) since 2010, indicating entrenched graft. Without transparency reforms, projects could fall prey to mismanagement, as seen in past infrastructure failures.

Democratic Renewal: A Fragile Foundation
The April election, with 70% turnout, signaled public engagement, but legislative and local polls in September will test the regime’s commitment to inclusivity. Nguema’s dominance risks marginalizing opposition voices, potentially stifling the pluralism needed for stable governance.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Gamble
Nguema’s agenda aligns with Gabon’s long-term interests, but execution remains the hurdle. The oil-to-diversification pivot could attract investors in mining (e.g., bauxite) and renewables, but success requires overcoming corruption and improving governance.

The data is clear: 40% youth unemployment and 30% poverty rates demand urgent action. If Nguema can deliver on infrastructure and education—while curbing graft—Gabon could become a regional economic hub. However, without measurable progress by 2026, skepticism will persist. Investors should proceed cautiously, prioritizing sectors with clear policy support and partnering with local stakeholders to navigate political risks. The path back to constitutional order is set, but the journey to prosperity remains fraught with potholes.