The Future of Bitcoin Treasury Firms in Mainstream Indices: Assessing the Sustainability and Index Inclusion Risks of MicroStrategy (MSTR)

The rise of Bitcoin treasury firms has redefined traditional corporate finance, with MicroStrategy (MSTR) at the forefront of this paradigm shift. By allocating billions to Bitcoin as a corporate asset, MicroStrategy has positioned itself as a pioneer in the digital asset space. However, the sustainability of its business model and its eligibility for inclusion in mainstream financial indices remain contentious. This analysis examines the risks and opportunities facing MicroStrategy, drawing on recent financial data and evolving index criteria to assess the viability of Bitcoin treasury strategies in the broader market.

Financial Sustainability: A Double-Edged Sword

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings have surged to 660,624 BTC as of December 2025, with the company's financial performance increasingly tied to Bitcoin's price volatility. In Q3 2025, the firm reported $3.9 billion in unrealized gains, contributing to a net income of $2.8 billion. However, this reliance on speculative gains has created instability. By late November 2025, MicroStrategy slashed its annual earnings forecast from a projected $24 billion net profit to a range of potential profit or loss, reflecting Bitcoin's sharp price corrections.

To sustain its Bitcoin accumulation, MicroStrategy has raised nearly $20 billion through equity and preferred stock offerings in 2025. Yet, recent capital raises have shifted toward issuing regular shares, diluting existing shareholders and signaling growing challenges in securing leverage. The company's market cap briefly fell below the net value of its Bitcoin holdings in December 2025, raising concerns about liquidity and leverage sustainability. While its software business remains stable, it contributes minimally to overall performance compared to Bitcoin-related gains.

Index Inclusion Risks: A Battle for Legitimacy

MicroStrategy's inclusion in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 has been repeatedly questioned. Despite meeting market capitalization and liquidity thresholds, the S&P 500 committee has excluded the firm, favoring companies with traditional earnings and operational stability over crypto-focused models. Similarly, MSCI proposed a rule change in 2025 that would exclude companies with digital assets constituting 50% or more of total assets from major equity indexes. This threshold, argued to be arbitrary by critics, could force MicroStrategy and other digital asset treasury firms (DATs) out of benchmark indices, triggering up to $8.8 billion in outflows.

MSCI's rationale hinges on the idea that firms exceeding the 50% threshold resemble investment funds rather than operating businesses. MicroStrategy has pushed back, asserting that DATs remain operational entities with active revenue streams and strategic value. The debate underscores a fundamental tension: traditional index providers prioritize stable, diversified earnings, while Bitcoin treasury firms bet on the long-term appreciation of a volatile asset.

Implications for the Future

The outcome of MSCI's consultation, with a final decision due January 15, 2026, could reshape the landscape for Bitcoin treasury firms. Exclusion from major indices would likely depress MicroStrategy's stock price, as index inclusion drives institutional demand and liquidity. Conversely, if DATs retain eligibility, it could signal broader acceptance of digital assets as corporate assets.

For investors, the risks are twofold: MicroStrategy's financial sustainability depends on Bitcoin's price trajectory, while its index inclusion hinges on evolving market perceptions of its business model. The company's leadership remains bullish, planning to expand credit securities offerings and capitalize on a growing digital asset market. However, structural challenges-such as shareholder dilution and leverage constraints-pose significant headwinds.

Conclusion

MicroStrategy's journey exemplifies the disruptive potential and inherent risks of Bitcoin treasury strategies. While its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation has generated extraordinary gains, the volatility of the asset and the uncertainty of index inclusion create a precarious balance. As MSCI and other index providers finalize their criteria, the broader market will watch closely. For now, investors must weigh the allure of Bitcoin's upside against the fragility of a model that blurs the lines between corporate finance and speculative investing.