Futu Holdings Surges 5.65% as Technical Indicators Signal Bullish Momentum

Futu Holdings (FUTU) has surged 5.65% in the most recent session, extending a three-day rally with a cumulative gain of 13.13%. This sharp reversal from prior volatility underscores a potential shift in market sentiment. The following analysis evaluates the stock’s technical profile across multiple frameworks to assess its near-term trajectory.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action exhibits a bullish continuation pattern, with the last three sessions forming a series of higher highs and higher lows. Key support levels are evident at $170 (a prior consolidation zone) and $155 (a psychological round number). Resistance appears at $190.64 (the recent closing high) and $194.32 (the intraday peak from August 22). A breakout above $194.32 could trigger a test of the next Fibonacci level at $200, while a retest of $170 may offer a buying opportunity if volume confirms the move.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (calculated from the past 50 days of data) is positioned above the 100-day and 200-day averages, indicating a bullish medium-term trend. The price currently trades above all three averages, reinforcing the uptrend. A crossover of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA (a “golden cross”) would further validate momentum, though this scenario is not yet materialized. The 200-day MA acts as a dynamic support at approximately $160, which aligns with the 2025-07-30 low.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has expanded in recent sessions, reflecting increasing bullish momentum, with the MACD line (12-day EMA minus 26-day EMA) rising above the signal line. This suggests sustained buying pressure. In contrast, the KDJ stochastic oscillator shows %K (3-day) and %D (3-day) lines entering overbought territory (>80), signaling a potential near-term pullback. However, the absence of bearish divergence (price rising while %K declines) tempers concerns about a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has spiked, with the upper band expanding to $194.32, the price’s recent high. The current price of $190.64 is within the upper band, indicating overbought conditions. A contraction in band width over the next few sessions could precede a breakout, but a reversal below the middle band ($180) would raise bearish implications.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged in the last three sessions, with the most recent day’s volume (3.1 million shares) exceeding the 50-day average. This volume surge aligns with the price rally, suggesting robust institutional participation. However, a decoupling of volume from price (e.g., rising prices with declining volume) would weaken the trend’s credibility.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI stands at approximately 72, entering overbought territory. Historical data from the backtest indicates that overbought conditions (RSI >70) have yielded mixed results, with short-term win rates above 50% but modest maximum returns (6.92%). This suggests that while the stock remains in an uptrend, caution is warranted as overbought levels may not always precede corrections.

Fibonacci Retracement

A primary Fibonacci retracement level at $179.45 (38.2% of the $155–$190.64 range) and $165.23 (61.8%) could act as critical support zones. A breakdown below $165.23 may trigger a deeper correction toward $150, while a rebound above $179.45 could reaffirm bullish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of overbought RSI (2022–present) reveals a nuanced picture: while short-term win rates exceed 50%, the maximum return of 6.92% highlights the limited profitability of relying solely on overbought signals. This aligns with the current scenario, where the RSI’s overbought level coincides with strong trend continuation. A strategic approach would involve entering long positions near Fibonacci support levels (e.g., $170–$179.45) with tight stop-losses below $165.23, leveraging the confluence of moving averages and volume confirmation.